Source: Talking about Li's talk.
Recently, many partners seem to have been attracted to the heat of U.S. and Hong Kong stocks because, compared to the dynamics of the crypto market itself, crypto concept stocks have indeed risen quite sharply. The topic of crypto markets mirroring the U.S. stock market is likely to continue to be hyped for some time.
However, since I am no longer involved in U.S. stocks/Hong Kong stocks and only pay attention to some daily fundamentals, I won't elaborate too much on this topic. Interested partners can combine the figure below for necessary research. As we mentioned in previous articles, the market is always full of opportunities, but it is also full of uncertainties, which is one of the reasons why most individual investors (retail investors) easily lose direction.
Regarding the crypto market, as the recent upward momentum of Bitcoin is slowing down, altcoins seem to be bottoming out again. Coupled with the excitement in the adjacent stock market, it seems that many people are already pessimistic about this field, believing that the golden period of this field has passed.
I remember seeing a saying that every industry will go through roughly five stages of development, namely the technology-led phase, product-led phase, marketing-led phase, cost-led phase, and innovation-led phase. If we apply this to the overall crypto market, we will roughly arrive at the following results:
Technology-led phase (2008-2012): Bitcoin appeared, the concept of blockchain emerged, and this period mainly focused on initial innovations, with many technological inventions.
Product-led phase (2013-2017): Various tokens appeared, with smart contracts represented by ETH. During this period, market competition mainly focused on product functionality, and the market entered a period of product exploration.
Marketing-led phase (2017-2021): The emergence of a crypto bull market, various concepts such as ICO, DeFi, NFT began to hype and gain attention, during which the user scale started to expand, and products began to compete on differentiation.
Cost-led phase (from 2022 to now): Major CEXs and DEXs start competing for users, various L1 and L2 chains bloom (but in fact, they are all lowering gas fees), during this period, the crypto market begins to pursue economies of scale, project parties start competing on user scale, and institutions begin researching cost control... Everything seems to be profit-driven.
Innovation-led phase (currently in the budding stage or partially starting): During this period, the crypto industry will enter a stage of comprehensive popularization (with some countries and regions excluded), various policies or regulations (mainly in the U.S.) begin to trend toward relative perfection, and giants start to monopolize (micro-strategy, BlackRock, and other large institutions entering), the overall development of the industry is trapped in a new bottleneck (but the development trend is still slowly upward), requiring innovation or transformation to break the bottleneck (for example, new directions such as AI and RWA seem to be attempting to break some development bottlenecks in the past two years).
But regardless of what stage the market has developed to, there will always be opportunities; it is just the difference between big opportunities and small opportunities, and whether we can continuously seize some of these opportunities. As for where the future of the crypto market lies, we don't know, but regardless of how others view it now, at least we will still firmly stay in this field and continue to maintain a long-term positive outlook.
Looking to the future while continuing to focus on the present, based on the current situation, the main reasons for the stagnation of the crypto market and the unclear short-term trends include:
1) Tensions in some countries/regions (such as the local war between Iran and Israel).
In previous articles, we speculated that Bitcoin might continue to try to approach or break the historical high in June, but the armed conflict in the Middle East has hit the market like a black swan. However, regarding this matter, we will still maintain the viewpoint from a few days ago (June 15) that if the situation further escalates, the market may continue to face significant fluctuations in the short term.
However, considering the results of several previous conflicts between Iran and Israel, along with the current threat and intervention from the United States, the probability of an all-out war in the Middle East is low. It seems that Iran is actually more about verbal posturing (lacking strength), and as long as the U.S. asks Israel to exercise some restraint and both sides give each other a way out, it is estimated that it will ultimately end in 'negotiation'.
If the new Middle East crisis can be declared over in phases, then Bitcoin may continue to rebound and attempt to break new highs again. Of course, we do not rule out the possibility of similar black swan events occurring in other countries/regions that could continue to impact the market, as geopolitics can indeed serve as an effective catalyst for deleveraging.
2) There are still some uncertainties regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy.
From Powell's latest statements (during Powell's congressional hearing on June 25, Beijing time), regarding the interest rate cut issue, he hinted during the Q&A session of the hearing that officials are more likely to wait until at least the September meeting to see if the price increases driven by tariffs are lower than expected before resuming interest rate cuts.
The above sentence seems to mean in plain language: the Federal Reserve is still observing, and while the possibility of a rate cut in July cannot be ruled out, it is more likely to wait until at least September.
From the market's expectations, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September has risen to 68.8%, as shown in the figure below.
However, compared to the Federal Reserve's ongoing wait-and-see attitude, Trump seems to be very proactive regarding the interest rate cut issue, as he is trying to directly push (pressure) the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. This is actually quite understandable, as from Trump's perspective, lowering interest rates can significantly reduce the government's debt repayment costs while enhancing the attractiveness of various risk assets.
All in all, considering the current situation, it seems we are getting closer to a clearer expected outcome regarding the interest rate cut issue, which will undoubtedly become an important catalyst for the market. We mentioned this in a previous article (April 14): the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates will definitely happen; it is just a matter of time. In that article, we also reminded that while interest rate cuts are certainly beneficial for the market, do not directly equate interest rate cuts with price increases because the market is always dynamic and volatile.
3) Various new uncertainties brought by President Trump regarding tariffs and other issues.
Regarding the topic of Trump, it seems we haven't paused since he started his campaign, as shown in the figure below.
This is not just because he (including his family group) is deeply intervening in the crypto market; in addition to promoting the Bitcoin national strategic reserve plan, he even personally steps in to issue coins and profit from it. His every word and action can always directly influence the trends of global markets (including stock markets, etc.).
Of course, in addition to the three aspects we listed above, the reasons influencing market trends are multifaceted (both known and unknown), which is also the main reason why short-term market predictions are difficult to make accurately. This goes back to what we mentioned in the previous article (June 23): the only thing we can do is manage our positions and find suitable trading opportunities in this complex 'game' of geopolitical games + market structure changes + macroeconomic expectations.
In addition, in the previous article (June 23), we also mentioned: for the current crypto market, we should execute two independent plans, namely the investment plan for Bitcoin and the investment plan for altcoins should not be mixed together.
Although our own investment strategy is currently mainly tilted towards Bitcoin, from the messages in the background, many people still prefer to invest in altcoins, which is very understandable because, compared to the theoretically limited upside of Bitcoin, the upside potential of altcoins seems larger. This is also a question of how to balance returns with personal risk preferences.
Regarding the discussion on the altcoin season topic, we have already shared quite a bit in previous articles. In summary, it can be condensed into one sentence: we estimate that it will be difficult to see the traditional altcoin season again, but there will still be opportunities for mini altcoin seasons to appear.
Although some traditional experiences, rules, or indicators may no longer fully apply to the mini altcoin season, the underlying logic of the market (liquidity rules) remains unchanged. Capital will always seek profit and will not have any faith in Bitcoin (or any other cryptocurrency); it will only flow to anything profitable.
In other words, most institutional investors are still mainly injecting funds into Bitcoin. However, there will always be a phased degree. When Bitcoin's price reaches a certain position, making it no longer have investment value, funds may flow back to some altcoins, such as those that have already gone through ETF (including those that may go through ETF) or crypto-related companies that have already IPO’d (including those that may go public).
If you still want to discover some potential opportunities in altcoins, our current advice remains unchanged: continue to assess your risk tolerance. You just need to closely monitor the changes in the BTC.D indicator and market sentiment, which will help you better determine the right entry timing.
For example, the crypto concept in the U.S. and Hong Kong stock markets is currently being hyped. Therefore, if you only chase this hot trend now, you seem to face higher risks. Instead, think from a different angle: if funds continue to hype the stock market for a while, do you think they would continue to hype related concepts in the crypto market? If you think so, then regarding the currently hot stablecoin concept, you can further think about what other crypto sectors are related to it.
This has actually been partially sorted out in some of our previous articles, for instance, in the article from March 28, we mentioned two opportunities: one is to participate in the associated institutions or projects of stablecoin issuance. The second is to participate in on-chain DeFi, RWA, and other projects. As shown in the figure below.
In summary, instead of passively chasing whatever is hot, it's better to calm down and find 1–2 specific areas of interest, then maintain continuous attention and in-depth research, while also combining some indicators you find necessary (e.g., K-line), policy trends, or on-chain data (e.g., capital flow), which can increase the likelihood of discovering potential opportunities in advance.
Here’s a simple example: during the bear market of 2022-2023, if you could firmly see (believe) that Bitcoin would definitely rise to $100,000, then you wouldn't have felt that Bitcoin was expensive at $20,000, $30,000, or $50,000. Similarly, if you chased in because Bitcoin broke through $100,000 and brought heat, without understanding what Bitcoin really is, and without having a relatively clear view or expectation for Bitcoin's future, then it would be difficult for you to hold on.
To give another example, if you believe that the ETH ETF in the third quarter of this year will increase staking, and the SOL ETF will also be officially approved, then you can still accumulate ETH and SOL now, including the top project/protocol tokens related to their respective ecosystems.
This actually applies to the stock market as well. For example, when we discussed CRCL stock a few days ago (June 15), its price was $133, then within a few days, the price surged to nearly $300, and then it retraced to $198 in the past two days. If you chased the $300 CRCL just because the topic of crypto concept stocks was hot, but you didn't have a clear view or expectation for Circle's future, then you would find it hard to hold on, and it might even lead to losses on your account now. However, if you firmly believe that Circle will rise to $1,000 in the future, then you can buy in anytime and hold.
Of course, expectations are just expectations, and there will still be a risk consideration issue, which is how to manage positions, as everyone's situation is different. Taking Bitcoin as an example, even though Bitcoin is already at $100,000, and we believe it may continue to rise to $300,000 in the future (for example, within 5 years), we would not directly go all in but instead continue to adopt the existing strategy of accumulating coins in phases.
There are roughly three types of investment thinking: ordinary logic, expert logic, and super expert logic. Simply put, ordinary logic means being greedy when others are greedy (the most vivid example is FOMO chasing hot trends and high prices), expert logic means being fearful when others are greedy (selling high to take profits), and super expert logic means being even greedier when others are greedy (requiring extremely strong channels, capabilities, or skills). However, for most ordinary investors, if they can understand and follow the expert logic stage, they can basically surpass over 90% of retail investors.
