Early this morning, Bitcoin hit a historic high. Although it only rose by 20 dollars compared to the last peak, it shows that Bitcoin is now completely following the U.S. stock market. Last night, chip giant Nvidia's total market value surpassed 4 trillion dollars, becoming the first asset to reach such a high value aside from gold. This effectively opens up the future upward space for the U.S. stock market. Bitcoin only started to rise after the U.S. stock market closed, which also indicates that Bitcoin is indeed influenced by Nvidia and the U.S. stock market.
Other altcoins have completely decoupled from Bitcoin's performance this round. Not to mention hitting new highs, most are still hovering at historical lows. In this round of market trends, there is basically no asset that has performed better than Bitcoin, meaning there are no assets that can outpace Bitcoin. This basically confirms that external funds have not flowed into the cryptocurrency market. For traditional investment funds, the cryptocurrency market is still a new field. Even if they are interested, they are more likely to buy stocks of listed companies related to cryptocurrencies. Therefore, as such cryptocurrency concept stocks increase, it is actually unfavorable for most altcoins listed on exchanges.
To really see altcoin bull markets, we need innovations in the cryptocurrency space on the level of a DeFi summer. The area that is likely to have a similar effect in the future is RWA stablecoins. Once there is a clear profit effect within the cryptocurrency market, this type of capital and asset will enter the market. Until then, the safest altcoin investments are still to invest in leaders, or ETF altcoins, treasury altcoins, or those that have deep collaborations with listed companies or institutions. Moving forward, we should consider projects reserved by the Trump family, Grayscale reserves, or those that may have an opportunity to go public in the future.
As for those old-school altcoins from previous bull markets, no matter how glorious they were back then, if they want to rise again, they must have tangible new products and applications.
Ethereum has been performing strongly recently, with six major companies buying Ethereum as an asset reserve. The ETF saw an inflow of 210 million last night, almost in line with Bitcoin. Bitcoin broke 110,000, and Ethereum broke 2,800. However, it is still uncertain if it has truly broken through. If it can maintain above 110,000 for three days, it can basically be regarded as a breakthrough; otherwise, the probability of a false breakthrough is still quite high. Trading volume has not significantly increased, and the market remains in a low liquidity phase, with turnover rates even lower than yesterday.
On one side, Bitcoin's price has broken a historical high, while on the other side, trading volume is shrinking. In simple terms, there are too few people trading right now.
This means that the rise is not due to high buying, but rather because many people do not want to sell. The imbalance between supply and demand has pushed prices up, which can be seen from the buying volume of the spot ETF. The purchasing power has not significantly improved; currently, maintaining stability is still the biggest problem.
Yesterday, Trump again implemented the TACO policy, announcing that tariffs would officially take effect from August 1, and market sentiment has noticeably improved.
This tariff negotiation has been extended by three weeks, giving more time for discussions. The market will not be easily frightened by tariff news for now; what the market cares about more is the outcome of the tariff negotiations, and it seems that the market has not reacted much to some interludes in the process.
Additionally, from this wave of Ethereum's rise, many leading altcoins have followed suit, proving that a local altcoin explosion in the second half of the year is definitely coming. So everyone must choose their targets carefully. Currently, it is best to focus on swing trading, and be sure to reserve some for long-term investment before the interest rate cut in September.
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