Bitcoin has hit a new high today, breaking through 118,000, while Ethereum has also risen back above 3000. The altcoins have finally welcomed a wave of general increase that everyone has been waiting for. I’ve already heard voices in the group calling for altcoin bull runs again. This actually confirms what was said before: as long as you stay in this circle long enough, you will eventually witness the industry’s boom. Although this wave of increase isn’t particularly fierce, at least it gives people in the circle a glimpse of hope.
In the first half of this year, the market atmosphere was quite pessimistic. Even many large holders of Ethereum said they couldn’t see a future. The impact of various US stocks and cryptocurrency stocks on crypto is just blood-sucking. The result is that the US stock market is bullish, Bitcoin is bullish, but altcoins can’t even get a sip of soup. This is the true portrayal of the cryptocurrency market in the first half of the year! However, I have always believed that although this round of altcoin movement is not as good as previous bull markets, local trends will definitely happen. Even when the market fell to around 70,000 in April due to tariffs, I still held onto two views:
1. The cryptocurrency market has its own cycles of rise and fall.
2. In the second half of the year, with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, a real explosive bull market is definitely coming. However, as mentioned earlier, local trends only belong to those truly valuable altcoins. Even if strong coins are temporarily trapped and losing money, don’t panic. In the cryptocurrency circle, as long as you can hold on, there will always be opportunities for a comeback. This refers to quality strong coins, not those empty shell coins. What are the strong coins? Boss Crab has mentioned them many times before; take a look at previous articles.
Last night’s surge was mainly driven by those large institutions in the US; just look at the timing of the rally. Ever since Trump openly supported cryptocurrency, the main force in buying coins has changed. Previously, it was mainly ETFs buying; now it’s large companies and some sovereign funds of countries buying. In recent months, the money these companies used to buy Bitcoin is twice that of ETFs. Just last night, nearly $1.2 billion flowed into Bitcoin ETFs.
Let’s discuss the issues of tariffs and interest rate cuts.
Last night, Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canada, 50% on Brazil, and 15-20% on other major trading partners. Other than Brazil, which was a bit unexpected, the rest were anticipated by everyone. So last night, both the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market rose. Will these tariffs push up US inflation? There are also divisions within the Federal Reserve, but most people think the impact is minimal.
Regarding interest rate cuts, Trump was pushing the Federal Reserve again last night. Currently, the market expects a very low probability (less than 5%) of a rate cut in July, but a relatively high possibility (around 65%) in September. I still maintain my previous view: if it doesn’t happen in July, it is likely to happen in September.
Altcoins have finally seen the general increase that everyone has been waiting for. However, the good rises are mainly concentrated in several strong sectors—Meme, AI, DeFi—these are much stronger than other sectors. Only a few particularly stunning coins, such as HYPER, which listed on major Korean exchanges Upbit and Bithumb, surged five times in a day!
Now the money in the market is waiting; as long as there’s some good news, the funds will rush in. But I want to remind you that this kind of sudden surge in altcoins can trap you if you haven’t positioned yourself in advance. It’s easy to get caught and lose a lot. At this stage, it’s better to prioritize buying those recognized leading coins.
For this round of altcoins, my allocation strategy is to try to choose those with strong teams or funds that have returns. The future drivers of the cryptocurrency market’s rise mainly rely on new funds coming in from outside the circle—either projects that can genuinely break out and be recognized and used by outsiders, or projects that can make money through their own applications in the market with stable income. Only such financially strong projects can reap the benefits of industry development.
Let’s talk about Ethereum.
Compared to Bitcoin, this round of ETH is not very strong. Bitcoin has risen significantly, while ETH has lagged behind. It only surged from around $1400 to around $4100, almost tripling.
However, after this wave, ETH’s performance has been quite average, even somewhat disappointing. This has left those who have been holding onto ETH without selling feeling quite conflicted. Recently, most people have been pondering: should I switch to something else?
For ETH to rise, it needs to overcome these hurdles: 1. $3000 is an important resistance level. ETH must first stabilize above $3000 to make everyone feel that it can still rise, allowing market confidence to slowly recover.
2. $4100 is a point that ETH has failed to break through multiple times in this rise, acting like a ceiling. If it can truly break through $4100 and not just touch it and fall back, that indicates that this round of ETH bull market has potential.
To summarize: For ETH to turn around, the first step is to stabilize above $3000 to reassure everyone.
The second step is to effectively break through $4100. Only after passing this barrier can it challenge the historical high of $5000.
So, for those friends who are thinking about ETH reaching new highs soon, be realistic and don’t rush. Let’s first see if it can get over the hurdles of $3000 and $4100!
Finally, today I saw many friends leaving messages asking what to do if they missed this wave of market movement. Here, I want to pour a bucket of cold water on those who think a big bull market is starting from here. Right now, these altcoins can rise entirely due to Ethereum, and this wave of increase was driven by Bitcoin and the US stock market. Yesterday I mentioned that Nvidia broke its historical high, and there’s no reason Bitcoin shouldn’t follow, as the US stock market has been heavily influencing it in the first half of the year.
Additionally, the impact of tariffs has not ended. The current standards for these tariffs will be extended to August 1. No one knows what this old man will say on August 1. If he says something unfavorable, and Bitcoin adjusts a few points, guess how much the altcoins will drop?
So it’s meaningless to look at the crazy bull when it rises or the deep bear when it falls. Do your own investment planning, understand the underlying logic of each wave, and plan for the future—it’s responsible for your own account.
Also, regarding friends who are still in cash:
Boss Crab has been continuously talking about Pepe, Sui, Uni, and Aave since June, even May; the positions were explained clearly. Sui below 3, Pepe below 1 are good buys, and trading these can yield profits. A few days ago, I also suggested keeping some long-term positions before September. The new highs in the last couple of days were driven by the rise in the US stock market. Currently, the entire financial market cannot sustain an independent trend, which makes it difficult. So for those with positions in these, I suggest to reduce positions while moving forward. This means reducing positions when the market is emotionally pushing higher, but don’t sell everything. The interest rate cut in September is coming soon. Cherish your low-cost chips; perhaps the correction in July-August won’t be too large but won’t be ordinary either.
All major events happen in the second half of the year, and I hope for a good outcome in the second half!
Brothers, come to the chat room to gather: