Esteemed E Guards! The short-term pullback of $ETH is the prelude to the charge, bottoming out towards the peak of 12,000!

The surge in ETH is a resonance of technology, capital, and narrative, but there is a risk of a pullback due to short-term overheating. The core points are as follows:

Short-term: CPI Dominates Trends

Current price is $2780. If tonight's CPI ≤ 3.1%, boosted by interest rate cut expectations and Bitcoin, it may surge to $2850. However, the 4-hour K-line shows a divergence in volume and price, similar to the situation before the March 2025 surge to $4200, when a breakthrough was followed by a 12% pullback within 72 hours, so a pullback should be guarded against.

Mid-term: Driven by ETFs and RWA

In the first week, three ETH spot ETFs in the US attracted $830 million, with BlackRock's mechanism promoting an average monthly passive buying of $675 million. On the Ondo chain, US Treasuries exceed $8.5 billion, bringing $255 million in annual returns to ETH stakers. Technically, a weekly breakthrough of $3000 has a target price of $3200.

Long-term: ETH/BTC Exchange Rate is Key

The ETH/BTC exchange rate is 0.027, with institutions betting it will become the “on-chain DTCC”. DeFi locked assets exceed $80 billion, with ETH staking accounting for 68%, and the EU MiCA regulations clearing obstacles. If the weekly line breaks through 0.054, the exchange rate in 2026 could exceed 0.12, corresponding to an ETH price of $12,000 (when BTC is $100,000).

Operational Strategy

For holders: Take profit on 50% above $2780, with the remaining position's stop loss at $2750; if CPI exceeds expectations, move the stop loss up to $2770. For those out of the market: Build positions in stages at $2724 - $2750 on pullbacks, with a stop loss below $2700. Hedge: Buy $2700 put options (cost 2.5%), and if it breaks through $2850, you can sell call options to construct a “strangle strategy”.

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