On the global financial chessboard, digital currencies have always been a focal point, with USDT (Tether) as a stablecoin making significant waves in the cross-border payment field in recent years. Among them, Yiwu, the global capital of small commodities, was once rumored to be the 'new battlefield' for USDT, with merchants allegedly collecting 1 billion U monthly, yet this bubble has now been ruthlessly burst.
When reporters delved into Yiwu, the world’s largest small commodity market, they saw a scene that was starkly different from the rumors. The bustling scene where many merchants allegedly used USDT for payments did not materialize; 90% of the owners waved their hands in refusal, and in the entire trade city, there was only one shop that reluctantly accepted U, and only for large transactions. The merchants' rejections were not without reason; there were many practical considerations behind this.
Export tax rebates are the lifeline for merchants, with a tax rebate rate of 6%-13% being crucial for them. However, using USDT for payments could very likely result in losing export tax rebates, which would undoubtedly sever the merchants' financial lifelines. Additionally, bank statements are also critical for merchants; without them, a loan limit of 5 million will hang in uncertainty. Even more concerning for merchants is the risk of bank cards being frozen; there have been clothing factories that suffered heavy losses and had to halt operations for two weeks due to the use of USDT.
Although the use of USDT is greatly restricted on the surface, underground currents are surging beneath. Intermediaries have sensed business opportunities, trading USDT for profit. Business owners dealing with countries like Vietnam and Turkey, which have seen currency crashes, risk using USDT to lock in exchange rates, which can save them hundreds of thousands. Some tech geeks are not to be outdone, building their own channels to achieve zero-fee transactions in 45 seconds, and even some transactions in gray areas are secretly using USDT.
In this seemingly chaotic situation, where are the real opportunities? The Yiwu giant small commodity city has provided its own answer: its Yi Payment plan aims to obtain a Hong Kong stablecoin license, constructing a compliant triangular model for receiving U overseas → licensed exchange in Hong Kong → settlement in mainland China. Once this model is successfully implemented, backed by global trade, the valuation of this licensed company tripling may not just be a dream.
Today, the global stablecoin war has entered a heated phase. The scale of stablecoins has surged 75% in just two years, reaching 210 billion USD, with annual transaction volumes as high as 35 trillion, which is twice that of Visa. The United States attempts to use stablecoins to solidify the dollar's hegemony, while Hong Kong actively seeks to issue licenses and even allows pegging to the RMB to secure a position in this battle.
We must be clear about the reality; in the short term, merchants face three major obstacles: tax refunds, loans, and frozen accounts, which are difficult to overcome. However, the underground demand for USDT genuinely exists, and its characteristics of speed, affordability, and inflation resistance continue to attract many to take risks. However, the future breakout point will undoubtedly be the deep integration of compliant channels and physical trade giants. When stablecoins hold 61 billion US Treasury bonds and enter the global top 20, and when Vietnamese customers inquire about receiving U, it is enough to prove that the influence of stablecoins is continuously expanding. Perhaps today, the Yiwu business owner who resolutely only accepts RMB will begin studying cryptocurrency wallets tomorrow.
For those feeling helpless or confused in the cryptocurrency trading circle today, understanding the real demand underground after the bubble bursts and closely grasping the layout of compliant giants is the key to seizing genuine opportunities. In this era of digital currencies full of uncertainties, only by closely following the trend of compliance and integration with the physical world can one find their own direction amidst the waves.#BTC 