This morning's 4-hour K-line yellow line (current price 2625) is jumping between 2585 (23.6% support) and 2650. Why are the bulls timid? ETH hit 2650 three times today and it feels like hitting a ceiling — the highest only reached 2643! Large funds are simply afraid to take the lead. More dangerously, the lower life line at 2585, once it breaks with volume, will head straight for 2538 (38.2% support) without negotiation. Last year, my community's old Li held on at this position and ended up with a liquidation loss of 230,000 U.
All moving averages are sounding alarms: MA7 (2602) is moving horizontally, and upward momentum is exhausted; MA30 (2543), if broken, will directly turn the trend bearish — this is completely consistent with my prediction during yesterday's live broadcast.
Adding to the heavy news early this morning: The Federal Reserve hawkishly states 'September may see interest rate hikes', making ETH's situation worse. Remember this painful rule: US stocks fall = cryptocurrency market collapses! During the crash in May 2022, ETH plummeted 18% alongside the Nasdaq in a single day. Right now, the most critical thing is the trading volume — the VOL bars have shrunk to the size of sesame seeds, a typical 'low-volume rebound acting recklessly', and it could be pierced by shorts at any moment.
Practical de-risking strategy
For those stationed above 2640: current price 2625, immediately reduce positions by 1/3! Only add positions at 2585 and 2538 (add 1/2), if it breaks below 2580/2535, directly stop-loss.
For those trapped in the 2600-2630 range: hold firmly at 2585, don't exit unless it breaks, only add positions if it drops to 2538 and shows a 1-hour pin bar.
Everyone close your eyes and do three things:
Set limit orders to sell if 2585 breaks
2508 drop continuation zone, hands itchy, just cut your hands!
A rebound above 2640 is all an opportunity to escape
Today's life and death line: break through 2650 with volume to see 2680, break 2585 and immediately cut losses! Remember my iron rule: stop-loss is a life-saving symbol, holding onto a single position is a death knell.
Click on the profile picture, follow me, and tell me what you think about the current market? Let's chat in the comments! The cryptocurrency market has both opportunities and risks, stay vigilant, and seizing the right moment is key.