国兴趋势

Fairness of Time: A Trader's Awakening and Market Warnings

Time is the fairest of all. Past glory or present blame all become fleeting memories. The rise and fall are merely ordinary rotations on the historical stage.

The Dilemma and Vigilance of Bears​​
As a “transparent bear,” I find myself in the eye of the storm. The pressure is immense, and I cannot sleep at night. This anxiety is not for profit or loss, but rather for the deep concern for potential blind followers—if my erroneous judgment causes others to incur losses, I feel unworthy of their trust.

​​Core Warning: The trading market most abhors blind faith! Blindly following any “authority” will ultimately come at a heavy price. ​

The Resilience of the Marginalized​​
A trader walking alone in the village, when asked, “What can make money?” can only self-deprecatingly reply, “Screwing bolts online.” There’s a saying in the community: Want revenge? Lure them into the crypto circle and teach them how to trade contracts. This joke brutally reveals the dangers of leveraged contracts.

Storms are Approaching​​
The “Ultimate Battle of the 7.9 Tariff” is about to conclude. It is foreseeable that most countries will compromise, and the stronger side may declare “order has been established.” The outcome is clear, but the process will undoubtedly stir market waves.

Technical Perspective: Signals of Winter​
1. Daily:​​ The upward trend line is obstructed, and the volume is insufficient. Bears are fighting back, MACD turns green, and the bulls are fatigued. The support at 106600 is in jeopardy; if it breaks, we look to 100000. A rebound is a short opportunity, and the spot market remains cautious.
2.​​ Four Hours:​​ MACD death cross indicates a short-term pullback is likely.
3.​​ Strategy: Short near 108300, stop loss at 109300, target at 103000.​​​​ U.S. stocks reflect:​​ New policies spur prosperity, and the stock market hits new highs. Yet, exuberance is often a turning signal; the risk-reward ratio is imbalanced, do not chase highs, and be patient in the spot market.

Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication​​
Small profits rely on intellect, large profits depend on vision, and immense wealth requires destiny. There’s no need to envy others’ splendor; who knows how fortune and misfortune are interconnected?

​​Those who are content are always happy, and enjoying the simplicity of “pork trotters rice” is also wisdom.​​

​​Core Insight:​​
Trading is a battlefield against human nature. Time is the fairest, but human hearts are easily lost. ​​Respect the market, think independently, and stay true to oneself; that is the righteous path. ​

!! Follow the trend of the nation, let’s uncover the truth beneath the surface, no need to panic in bull or bear markets!!

#Solana质押型ETF #Strategy增持比特币

July starts off poorly! Is the crypto world falling into a 'good news paralysis'? A deep analysis of three unusual phenomena in the market

Unusual Phenomenon 1: Bombarded with good news yet unable to rise
1. Public companies are frantically hoarding coins: Following MicroStrategy, there is now an 'ETH version of MicroStrategy', with a certain institution continuously increasing its Ethereum holdings
2. Major actions from brokerages: Robinhood suddenly opens ETH/SOL staking services, further opening traditional financial channels
3. Loose liquidity: Expectations for Fed rate cuts are rising, and market liquidity continues to improve

Unusual Phenomenon 2: Serious divergence between US stock crypto stocks and coin prices
1. Stocks like MARA/RIOT have three consecutive monthly gains
2. COINBASE's stock price has doubled compared to the beginning of the year
3. Despite the Nasdaq index reaching historical highs, BTC is stuck at the 60,000 mark

【Technical Alarm】
1. BTC weekly MACD death cross continues
2. ETH/BTC exchange rate breaks below key support level
3. The total open contract volume in the market surges, but prices remain stagnant

【Divergent Institutional Opinions】
Bullish camp: Grayscale's report indicates that it is currently the 'calm before the storm', and ETF funds will restart inflows
Bearish camp: On-chain data shows that whales are continuously depositing into exchanges, potentially brewing greater selling pressure
Neutral camp: The traditional off-season effect in Q3 combined with the exhaustion of good news may lead to continued fluctuations until late July

!! Pay attention to national trends, guiding you to see beyond the surface, no panic in bull or bear markets!!

#Strategy增持比特币 #币安Alpha上新

【Crypto News】MYX airdrop benefits have arrived, with a maximum value of $500! Those who missed out are regretting it.

This emerging crypto project has recently shown impressive performance:
Airdrop of tens of millions of tokens completed in March
Joint airdrop event launched in April
IDO subscription exceeded 30,000 times in May
Now a new round of benefits distribution has begun

【Project Highlights】

Holding VIP Mechanism
1. Only need to hold 10 MYX to become a VIP
2. The more you hold, the higher the discount on fees
3. No locking requirements, the mechanism is simple and transparent

LP Incentive Program
1. GEM rewards distributed based on daily average holdings
2. Each 10 mlp can earn 1 GEM daily
3. Team bonuses can reach up to 47%

Node Staking
1. Well-known institutions have participated
2. Current annualized yield reaches 228.71%

Follow the trend of national prosperity, let us help you see beyond the surface, no panic in bull or bear markets!!

#MYXFinance引领BSC链上永续未来

Elon Musk vs. Trump: Key Market Insights Today

Core Event Interpretation

1. Musk vs. Trump:
The tech tycoon and the politician often clashing may signal policy changes; beware of related asset volatility.
2. SOL Staking ETF Approved:
The first Solana staking ETF has been approved.
This is a non-spot ETF, where investors hold shares of the fund instead of SOL itself.
Good for the SOL ecosystem.

Market Hotspot Tracking

Surge Sectors:
1. SOL Ecosystem Meme Coins: USELESS, PENGU
2. Platform Tokens: Hyperliquid
3. RWA Concept: Robinhood Launches Arbitrum Stock Tokenization.

Crash Risks:
1. TRUMP Coin: Dropped from $73 to $0.17
2. Delisting Warning: OKX will remove X, BSV, GOG, and other spot trading pairs.

Institutional Viewpoint Discrepancies

Circle Valuation Controversy:
1. JP Morgan is bearish.
2. Bernstein is optimistic.

Robinhood Innovations:
1. Launching Tokenized US Stocks.
2. Building a Dedicated Blockchain.

Operational Suggestions

Key Focus Areas:
1. SOL Ecosystem
2. RWA Sector
3. BTC Allocation

Risk Warnings:
1. Stay away from politically connected coins.
2. Be cautious with high leverage.
3. Avoid tokens that may be delisted.

Current Strategy: 70% mainstream coins + 30% hotspot rotation, with strict profit-taking and stop-loss settings.

Follow the trend of Guoxing, helping you see beyond the surface, regardless of bull or bear markets.

#Solana质押型ETF #Strategy增持比特币

Analysis of Bitcoin Whales' Manipulation Logic: The Wealth Game of Trapping Shorts and Trapping Longs

1. The Essence of Zero-Sum Game
The cryptocurrency market is a zero-sum game, where profits come from the losses of others. Whales use capital and information advantages to create traps to harvest retail investors.

2. Classic Manipulation Tactics
1. Trapping Shorts: Breaking key support to trigger panic selling, after which the whales accumulate at low prices and then push the price up, with the liquidation of short positions boosting the rise.
2. Trapping Longs: False breakouts above previous highs but with insufficient volume, placing short orders at high prices to attract long positions, followed by a plunge that triggers long position liquidations.

3. Identifying Whale Traps
Technical Analysis: 1. Trapping Shorts - Rapid recovery after a significant drop
2. Trapping Longs - Divergence in MACD/RSI during the breakout.
On-Chain Data: Unusual movements by large whales, extreme contract rates.
Sentiment Indicators: Contrarian action when social media sentiment is unanimously bullish/bearish.

4. Survival Rules for Retail Investors
Reverse Thinking: Price increases signify selling, price decreases signify accumulation.
Strict stop-loss to avoid chasing highs and panic selling.
Observe for 1-2 days after a breakout to confirm validity.

5. Current Trend Alert
If Bitcoin rises to 110,000 - 112,000 and then retraces, accompanied by a surge in long positions, it may trigger a trap for longs, with a sharp drop target below 95,000.

Summary: The cryptocurrency market is a psychological battle; understanding the flow of capital is essential to avoid being harvested. Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.

Follow Guoxing Trends, and we will help you see beyond the surface, staying calm in both bull and bear markets.

#大而美法案 #上市公司山寨币财库

US Debt Ceiling and the Crypto Market: Will TGA Liquidity Injection Trigger a Surge?

The US debt ceiling issue has garnered attention again. If an agreement is reached in August, the Treasury may release massive liquidity. History shows that such capital injections often lead to explosive growth in the crypto market.

TGA Account: The Market's “Faucet”

The Treasury's TGA account directly affects market liquidity:
2017: After TGA liquidity injection, Bitcoin rose from $1,000 to $20,000, and altcoins surged.
2023: After the debt ceiling was resolved, $500 billion was injected into the market, Bitcoin rose from $25,000 to $40,000, and DeFi and Meme coins skyrocketed.

Conclusion: TGA outflow = Increased market liquidity = Benefiting risk assets.

The Logic of the US “Debt-Driven” Economy
The US relies on debt to sustain its economy:
1. In the early days of the nation, debt issuance attracted European capital.
2. Under the dollar system, US Treasuries became the world's core asset.
3. The debt ceiling has been raised multiple times, but each time approaching default causes market turbulence.

Key Cases:
The 2011 debt crisis led to a downgrade of the US credit rating by S&P, while Bitcoin rose against the trend.
After the 2023 crisis and massive liquidity injection, a crypto bull market was directly spawned.
August 2024: A crucial turning point.

This August, the Treasury's cash will be exhausted, and two scenarios may arise:
Congress raises the ceiling, TGA liquidity injection
1. Liquidity surges, the crypto market and other sectors may lead the rally.
2. Negotiations break down, liquidity tightens.
3. The market faces short-term pressure, but Bitcoin may benefit from its safe-haven status.

How to Position?
If liquidity is injected, focus on:
1. Bitcoin
2. Ethereum
3. Low-market-cap altcoins
4. Meme coins

Risks: Debt negotiations may trigger short-term volatility, and high interest rates may offset some liquidity effects.

Conclusion
The crypto market is driven by liquidity, and TGA is the “faucet.” If liquidity is injected in August, altcoins may explode; if tightened, Bitcoin may become a safe haven. Investors should track fund flows in advance rather than blindly chase prices.

Follow me by clicking the avatar for more informed investment decisions. As the crypto market fluctuates, the national trend accompanies you!

#币安Alpha上新 #美国加征关税

Survival Rules in the Crypto World! Simple Wins

Four years ago, I was obsessed with technical analysis, staying up late to study candlesticks, MACD, and RSI. As a result, I repeatedly gained and lost, even facing liquidation. Until an experienced trader enlightened me: The simpler the trading, the better.

Core Logic: Mindset > Skills
1. High Win Rate Strategy at Bottom
Characteristic: Appears at the end of a decline, 3 candlestick combination
Stop Loss: Exit immediately if it breaks the low of the second candlestick
2. Six Don'ts
Don't touch if the 60-day moving average hasn't stabilized
Don't chase prices after good news is announced
Don't buy coins that have surged far from the 5-day line
Don't take risks on gaps at high positions
Avoid if turnover rate > 30%
Be wary of scams from coins that are pulled against the trend
3. Four Don't Let Go
Hold when RSI is 50-80
Keep if there's a gap up at a low position
Tighten grip in an upward trend
Wait for concentration of chips before a rise

Three Major Survival Rules
1. News Section
Good news = selling signal, bad news fully out can ambush
Anonymous teams and unopen-sourced projects are direct Pass
Join fewer “wealth password groups,” and check on-chain data more
2. Technical Section
Trading volume is the soul; rising without volume must correct
Buy the dip after a drop of more than 50%, the probability of a 30% rebound is high
In and out quickly within 24 hours of new coin listings
3. Mindset Section
Don't watch the market; set proper stop-loss and take-profit;
Withdraw profits regularly to secure gains;
Reject FOMO; missing out is always better than losing everything.

Ultimate Mindset
Simple Repetition: Only engage in high win rate patterns.
Anti-Human Nature Actions: Buy in batches during market panic and sell in batches during craziness.
Capital Preservation First: If you lose 50% of the principal, you need to earn 100% to break even.
One day in the crypto world is like a year in the real world. Less trading, keep discipline, and survive is the real victory.

Follow Guoxing Trends, and let us peel back the surface to see the way, remain calm in bull and bear markets.

#大而美法案 #香港加密概念股