Although Trump has been calling for interest rate cuts, market expectations for rate cuts in July and September continue to weaken. Last week's data showed that the probability of no rate cut in July was 80%, and it has now risen to 95%. The probability of no rate cut in September also increased from 6.8% to 34.1%. The reason is that inflation is rising, the unemployment rate is falling, and employment numbers are rebounding, indicating that the U.S. economy remains resilient, and inflation pressures persist, leading investors to have little expectation of short-term easing from the Federal Reserve.

This is not good news for Trump. As previously analyzed, interest rate cuts are key to the smooth advancement of his fiscal and trade policies, but Powell is unlikely to cooperate under the current circumstances, especially with a rate cut in July almost hopeless.

Therefore, Trump is likely to nominate a new Federal Reserve Chair this month. Although Bostic, who is currently a strong candidate, is pro-Trump, he is not a Federal Reserve Board member and would find it difficult to influence the internal structure of the Fed. If someone like Bowman or Waller, who are current board members, were to take the position, it could potentially create a new support force internally, gradually changing policy direction towards easing.

This personnel arrangement not only increases the internal game within the Federal Reserve but could also elevate market expectations for future rate cuts. If easing signals are not released promptly, U.S. fiscal pressures will continue to drain market liquidity through high interest rates.

Therefore, Trump is likely to appoint a new chair to provide monetary policy checks and support for his tariff policies and the Great Beautiful Plan.