What Trump truly hates is not Musk, but Powell. In his worldview, he has already made gestures of goodwill in January and February 2025, softening his stance, but Powell refuses to budge and is unwilling to cut interest rates, which makes Trump very uncomfortable. Everything he wants to do must be based on the premise of low interest rates.

First is the stock market. Trump has repeatedly claimed that his presidency will bring a bull market. However, the reality is that the stock market has become more volatile, especially after tariffs were implemented, triggering severe market fluctuations and shaking confidence. This uncertainty is directly reflected in the polls, which is a burden for both him and the Republican Party's electoral prospects. This poses negative factors for the midterm elections in 2026 and the presidential election in 2028. To stabilize the stock market, the first step is to cut interest rates to alleviate the constraints of high rates on liquidity.

Next, in terms of finance, the grand plan that Trump initiated not only raised the debt ceiling but also increased fiscal spending, aimed at bringing back manufacturing, infrastructure, and industry subsidies. However, while issuing debt and bearing a 4.5% interest rate, the Treasury can't even handle the interest. Lowering interest rates is the premise for this logic to work; without rate cuts, not only will the plans fail to materialize, but the debt will also continue to balloon.

Then there's the exchange rate. Trump is engaged in a global tariff war, with Japan, South Korea, China, and Mexico taking turns to join the fray. Exporters are already under tremendous pressure, and if the dollar remains strong, it would be a double blow to domestic manufacturing. Therefore, for Trump, a depreciation of the dollar is very necessary, but it cannot happen due to recession; it can only be alleviated through interest rate cuts. Moreover, a decrease in DXY can release more liquidity, stimulate risk markets, and increase investors' risk appetite.

Politically, Trump needs a compliant Federal Reserve, not an independent one; he needs Powell to be obedient. Only with the Federal Reserve's cooperation can Trump better manipulate tariffs and other political agendas, but regarding inflation, I believe Trump will realize there might be issues, though it is certainly not his primary concern right now. Having just been in office for six months, there has almost been an issue caused by him every month.

Finally, and most importantly, we all know that historically in the U.S., when interest rates are high, there is a 70% to 80% probability of an economic recession. How could Trump not know this? Quickly lowering interest rates to eliminate the probability of an economic recession caused by high rates is something Trump urgently needs to accomplish. If an economic recession indeed occurs during Trump's term, his approval ratings will plummet and become a target for the Democrats.