1. Market Observation
Although the U.S. has extended the tariff suspension period to August 1, it has threatened to raise tariffs on imported goods from major trading partners again this week, leading to continued uncertainty about the final tariff levels. A UBS report indicates that the current tariffs are equivalent to taxing U.S. importers 1.5% of GDP, with annual tariff revenues exceeding $300 billion. The lagging effects of these tariffs on inflation are expected to show up in the July CPI data to be released in August. This delay is attributed to corporate inventory buffers, slow price transmission of intermediate goods, and the bi-monthly sampling mechanism of the CPI, with historical experience showing that a 10% general tariff takes 2-3 months to fully reflect in the price index. In terms of interest rate policy, the Federal Reserve is facing a dilemma: a New York Fed survey shows that one-year inflation expectations have fallen to 3%, but pressures from components such as medical costs (9.3%) and university tuition (9.1%) are significant, while the labor market is showing contradictory signals—concerns about unemployment are easing, but reemployment is becoming more difficult.
With the Hong Kong (Stablecoin Regulations) set to take effect in August, the market is full of expectations for the compliance dividends brought by the clarified regulatory framework. HashKey's chief analyst, Jeffrey Ding, pointed out that stocks related to stablecoins, such as Jinyong Investment, have recently doubled, reflecting strong market expectations for compliance dividends after the August regulations take effect. The regulatory framework revealed by the Financial Secretary's deputy, Xu Zhengyu, will cover core requirements such as anti-money laundering and reserve audits, and the first batch of licenses to be issued within the year could reshape the competitive landscape of the industry. However, Jeffrey Ding also warned that for stablecoins to disrupt traditional payment systems, they still need to overcome three major obstacles: the distribution mechanism of interests between financial institutions and technology companies, the challenge of cross-border regulatory coordination, and the systemic risk stress testing under extreme market conditions.
The cryptocurrency market is undergoing a critical technical breakthrough and cycle validation phase, with both bulls and bears fiercely competing near $110,000. Analyst 0xENAS noted that if the price cannot break through this resistance level, it may quickly fall back to $100,000; conversely, it may aim for $120,000. More optimistic predictions come from analyst TedPillows, who believes that Bitcoin could rise to the range of $120,000 to $125,000 in the next phase, based on the trend of M2 money supply. From a longer time frame, analyst Rekt Capital predicts that the peak of this bull market could occur between mid-September and mid-October 2025, which aligns with analyst Jelle's trading plan, who has started to gradually reduce his positions and plans to exit the market completely by October 2025. Ali mentioned that Bitcoin has solid support around $106,360.
Regarding Ethereum, analyst Open4profit stated that ETH is approaching the $2,630 triangular resistance level after standing above $2,600, and Open4profit recommends monitoring changes in trading volume to confirm the trend. Meanwhile, market optimism for Ethereum has also spread to stocks holding related tokens, with GameSquare's stock surging 58.76% in a single day, and related listed companies such as Sharplink (+28.57%) and Bit Digital (+7.47%) also performing strongly.
In the altcoin market, Vertex announced the migration of its DEX from Arbitrum to the Ink network and will gradually phase out its native token VRTX, resulting in a 60% drop in VRTX over 24 hours. The MEME token battle between Solana ecosystem Letsbonk and Pump.fun, while still heated, saw the related token LetsBONK experience a decline of over 30%, with the market temporarily lacking a sustainable new narrative. Notably, the $Lore token surpassed a market cap of $2 million under retweets and comments on platform X.
2. Key Data (as of July 9, 12:00 HKT)
(Data Source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)
Bitcoin: $108,513 (Year-to-date +15.99%), daily spot trading volume $21.32 billion.
Ethereum: $2,600.10 (Year-to-date -22.06%), daily spot trading volume $15.52 billion.
Fear and Greed Index: 67 (Greed)
Average GAS: BTC: 0.52 sat/vB, ETH: 0.3 Gwei
Market Share: BTC 64.2%, ETH 9.3%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, ETH, BTC, CRO, BONK
24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 0.9728
Sector Performance: DeFi sector up 2.89%; L2 sector up 2.78%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 59,563 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $121 million, including $22.3 million in BTC, $34.98 million in ETH, and $5.35 million in MAGIC.
BTC Medium to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper Channel Line ($108,964.14), Lower Channel Line ($106,806.44)
ETH Medium to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper Channel Line ($2,545.01), Lower Channel Line ($2,494.61)
*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower lines, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or fluctuates through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.
3. ETF Flows (as of July 8)
Bitcoin ETF: +$80.08 million, continuing 4 days of net inflow.
Ethereum ETF: +$46.63 million, continuing 3 days of net inflow.
4. Today's Outlook
Binance Alpha will launch the RCADE project on July 9.
Binance Alpha and Binance Contracts will list Tanssi Network (TANSSI).
The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting. (July 10, 02:00)
2025 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Bullard will speak on the U.S. economy and monetary policy. (July 10, 21:00)
U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending July 5 (in ten thousands): Previous value 23.3, Forecast value 23.5 (July 10, 20:30)
Today's top 500 market cap gainers: Treasure (MAGIC) up 46.05%, Banana For Scale (BANANAS31) up 31.92%, Zebec Network (ZBCN) up 16.77%, Cronos (CRO) up 16.70%, VVS Finance (VVS) up 15.75%.
5. Hot News
a16z Crypto has completely cleared its COMP holdings and transferred another 400,000 COMP to Coinbase Prime today.
Tether holds $8 billion worth of gold in secret vaults in Switzerland.
Vertex will close its original DEX and migrate to the Layer 2 network Ink supported by Kraken.
World Gold Council: Global gold ETFs increased by $38 billion in the first half of the year, with average daily trading volume hitting a semi-annual record.
SharpLink purchased 7,689 ETH last week, and its total holdings exceeded 200,000 ETH, earning 322 Ethereum staking rewards.
Hong Kong-listed company Jinyong Investment has surged over 600%, having announced a stablecoin collaboration with AnchorX.
"Yiwu merchants begin to accept stablecoins" climbed to the 4th spot on Baidu's hot search list.
The number of addresses holding BONK is about to exceed 1 million, at which point 1 trillion tokens will be burned.
The publicly listed real estate company Murano plans to establish a Bitcoin reserve through a $500 million equity transaction.
Bit Digital sold 280 Bitcoin to fund the purchase of Ethereum.
The publicly listed company GameSquare raised $8 million to initiate an Ethereum fund management strategy.
This article is supported by HashKey. HashKey Exchange is the largest licensed virtual asset exchange in Hong Kong and the most trusted fiat gateway for crypto assets in Asia, committed to setting new benchmarks for compliance, capital safety, and platform security in virtual asset exchanges.
