Original | Odaily Planet Daily
Author | Azuma
The cryptocurrency market seems to have entered a phase of accelerated growth, following a significant surge the previous night, the market experienced an even more violent increase last night.
OKX market data shows that BTC surged to $117,548.2 USDT last night, and as of 8:30 this morning, it is reported at $115,408 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of 3.75%; more surprisingly, the altcoin benchmark ETH, under multiple positive stimuli, broke through the $3,000 mark last night, reaching a maximum of $3,002.99 USDT, and as of 8:30 this morning, it is reported at $2,972.21 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of 5.77%; another altcoin leader SOL is reported at $162.7 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of 4%.
Influenced by the overall market rise (especially since ETH is no longer stagnant), the altcoin market has also welcomed a strong recovery. As of 8:30 this morning, several cryptocurrencies among the top 100 have recorded double-digit increases, with SUI currently at 3.42 USDT, a 24-hour increase of 11.7%; ARB at 0.3915 USDT, a 24-hour increase of 11.1%; PEPE at $0.00001218, a 24-hour increase of 11.2%; PENGU at 0.0194 USDT, a 24-hour increase of 26.18%...
According to CoinGecko, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization has surpassed $3.669 trillion. In terms of market sentiment, the trading enthusiasm among cryptocurrency users has also significantly increased, with today's fear and greed index reaching 71, indicating a level of 'greed'.
In terms of derivatives trading, Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the total liquidations across the network amounted to $1.078 billion, with the vast majority being liquidations of short positions, totaling $969 million. In terms of cryptocurrencies, BTC liquidated $583 million, and ETH liquidated $242 million.
Reasons for the rise: tariff 'desensitization', institutional accumulation, expectations of interest rate cuts.
Regarding the reasons for the current market rebound, we have already provided some analysis in yesterday's market trend article (BTC hits a new high of $112,000, ETH leads with a 7% increase, is the dawn of altcoin season emerging?).
On one hand, the market has gradually realized that the collective psychological impact brought about by this round of tariff turmoil has significantly weakened — just like the story of 'The Wolf Is Coming', when a story is spread multiple times, its deterrence naturally diminishes, and the panic effect of the tariff war on the cryptocurrency market and even the global economy has significantly decreased.
On the other hand, the buying power from institutions, including ETFs, continues to expand. As of July 10, spot Bitcoin ETFs have maintained positive inflows for five consecutive days. After SOL opened the ETF channel, more altcoin ETFs are also expected to be approved for listing; additionally, beyond established BTC hoarding companies like Strategy, more and more listed companies have shifted their hoarding targets to ETH, SOL, and even altcoins like HYPE.
In addition to the above reasons, the comments from several Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts last night also somewhat boosted market sentiment.
San Francisco Fed President Daly stated last night: 'I think there might be two rate cuts, but everyone’s expectations are uncertain, and we are considering implementing rate cuts in the fall.'
Federal Reserve Board member and potential candidate for the next chair, Waller, stated that even if the employment data in June performs strongly, the Fed should still consider lowering interest rates at the July monetary policy meeting — "I have made my point clear. The current policy rate level is too high, and we can discuss lowering the benchmark rate in July... When inflation is declining, we do not need to maintain such a tight policy stance, which is the decision-making logic that a central bank should have."
Can ETH's strong rebound continue in the future?
ETH is undoubtedly the 'brightest star' in this round of market rise. Since the market low in April this year, no one expected that ETH, which had the most pessimistic sentiment at the time, would outperform BTC and SOL, and it has achieved a doubling rebound to date.
We have provided a detailed analysis of the reasons why ETH has been able to outperform the market recently in the article (Five Major Rising Logics Becoming Clear, ETH May Welcome Structural Reversal). In short, supported by five major rising logics: regulatory easing, institutional accumulation, foundation reforms, increasing on-chain activity, and the return of market confidence, ETH, which has undergone a long consolidation period, may welcome a structural reversal, with further upward momentum expected in the long run.
Jack Yi, the founder of LD Capital, who previously made high-profile predictions for ETH (now referred to as 'E Boss' by E Guardians), also posted on X this morning stating that Ethereum's breakthrough of $3,000 marks the start of a bull market for the cryptocurrency industry... Ethereum is severely undervalued; past bull markets were driven by ICOs and DeFi, while this round is driven by stablecoins and RWA.
However, from the perspective of short-term trends and order situations, ETH still faces strong selling pressure around $3,000, which means that if it wants to effectively break through this level, ETH may still need to consolidate further below. CoinDesk's analysis model released this morning also shows that ETH faces strong resistance near $3,000, while the support area is around $2,750.
Additionally, the Ethereum Foundation, which was recently praised for its operational reforms, sold 1,210 ETH this morning at an average selling price of $2,889.5. Considering the past 'top-tapping' record of a certain hedge fund, this will affect market sentiment to some extent.
'Will altcoin season come again?'
ETH has always been regarded as the benchmark for altcoins. Previously influenced by ETH's long-term stagnation, the altcoin market had also been sluggish for a long time. However, with ETH finally welcoming a strong rebound, the market has rekindled its expectations for the legendary 'altcoin season'.
Regarding this discussion, trader degentrading posted a different analysis on X last night, suggesting that under the market consensus that 'altcoins are scams', the gradually rising short positions will ultimately become the fuel for the rise of altcoins due to short squeezes, thus driving the arrival of 'altcoin season'.
An unprecedented phenomenon is emerging in the current market: the open interest (OI) of multiple altcoins exceeds their market capitalization, which means there are uncovered naked shorts — because covering shorts requires buying equivalent spot assets, and when OI > market cap, there are simply not enough tokens available to accommodate.
The historic turning point is that as Bitcoin is about to break its previous high, we are observing for the first time: massive funds continuously flowing into ETH; institutions bidding for ETH through treasury companies; the altcoin derivatives market OI hitting historical records; a new generation of traders profiting by shorting altcoins (the consensus that 'altcoins are all scams' is prevalent).
A short squeeze storm is about to arrive, with the current total market OI around $172 billion (BTC $83 billion/ETH $40 billion), with altcoins alone accounting for $50 billion. When these massive short positions established at historical lows begin to unwind collectively — this is the structural source of demand for altcoins. The game is about to begin.
However, differing opinions still exist. Andrei Grachev, executive partner at DWF Labs, believes that most altcoins are still expected to underperform Bitcoin in the future.
The approval of the 'Big and Beautiful Bill', seasonal market activity in the fourth quarter, and potential interest rate cuts will drive Bitcoin and cryptocurrency-related stocks to new highs. The altcoin market may partially follow the rise, but most mid-cap coins are expected to underperform Bitcoin, with opportunities coming again.
It has been too long since the last 'altcoin season'; it has been so long that this term has become a joke, and the market seems to have lost the courage to imagine it again.
Will this time be different?
