New York copper futures surged 17% overnight! On July 9, Trump suddenly announced a 'devastating tariff' of 50% on imported copper, and Commerce Secretary Raimondo made a firm statement that the policy would be implemented 'without further delay' as early as the end of July or August 1.
This giant hammer instantly shattered market expectations, with COMEX copper prices surging to a historic peak of $5.8955 per pound in a single day, with premiums on London Metal Exchange copper prices soaring to a record 25%!
1. The copper storm sweeps the globe, and the inflation tsunami strikes the crypto circle directly.
The surge in copper prices is by no means an isolated event; its chain reaction is tearing apart the global supply chain:
The inflation engine is running at full throttle: copper, as the lifeblood of industry, is involved in key areas such as chips, electricity, AI servers, and new energy vehicles. Once the 50% tariff is implemented, manufacturing costs in the U.S. will surge vertically, forcing the Federal Reserve to 'hit the brakes' on interest rate cuts, with a high-interest environment continuing to strangle risk assets;
The panic index has skyrocketed: historic arbitrage has begun—traders are crazily transporting global copper inventories to the U.S., leading to a sharp reduction of copper mines in other regions. LME copper prices could be pushed up to $12,000 per ton, and resource shortages will spread to the mining machine production chain, impacting Bitcoin mining hardware costs;
Market sentiment is 'extremely fearful': Previously, due to Trump's 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, the crypto market evaporated $500 billion in market value in a single day! The fear and greed index has plummeted. The impact of this 50% copper tariff is doubled, and Bitcoin may face a 'flash crash' tragedy again.
2. Miners' apocalypse: mining costs soar, and the mining machine supply chain breaks.
The soaring copper prices directly pierce the miners' throats:
High-end mining machines contain more than 20 kilograms of copper; if tariffs trigger price increases across the entire industry chain, new mining machine prices could jump by 30%. Coupled with the reduction in block rewards after Bitcoin halving, miners are doomed to 'lose money as soon as they start up,' and selling off BTC inventory for survival will trigger a stampede.
The global copper rush has led to delays in the delivery of chips and cooling modules, constraining the production capacity of major companies like Bitmain and Shenshen. The delivery cycle for new mining machines has lengthened, and the overall network computing power growth has stagnated—seemingly good news for active miners, but it hides the risk of a difficulty adjustment explosion.
3. The 'double kill' chain of hedge funds is about to explode.
Even more dangerous is the nuclear crisis hidden behind the ETF:
According to Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX, the current holders of the BlackRock Bitcoin spot ETF are hedge funds that arbitrage the basis by 'going long on ETFs + shorting CME futures';
If the copper tariff shock leads to a Bitcoin crash, the basis will narrow rapidly, forcing hedge funds to simultaneously sell ETFs + cover futures, forming a 'double kill' death spiral!
Ultimate warning: The Trump deal is destroyed, and $70,000 is the last defense line.
These arbitrage funds will dump ETFs during U.S. trading hours to lock in profits and exit. Bitcoin is bearish to $70,000!
The copper tariff is the last straw that breaks the 'Trump deal.' The previous gains brought by Trump's pro-crypto remarks have been completely erased, and Bitcoin, after losing the $90,000 mark, has fallen into a 'technical bear market.' When the metal market resonates with panic in the crypto circle, if the $70,000 defense line is breached, it will trigger a chain reaction of on-chain collateral liquidation, reminiscent of the 'Three Arrows' liquidity hell!
History does not repeat details but rhymes. The copper storm in July 2025 is echoing the script where Bitcoin plummeted 8% in a single day due to tariff shocks in February 2024. When the three guillotines of mining costs, inflation expectations, and fund selling pressure come down, the only strategy for holders is: hedge risks immediately, hoard stablecoins, and wait for the panic peak to buy the dip!
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