Last night, Trump started to brandish tariffs again, and the market began to shroud in panic! Today, the crypto market fell across the board. Bitcoin reached a maximum of 109,700 yesterday and a minimum of 107,513, with a fluctuation of 2,187 points. Ethereum reached a maximum of 2,590 yesterday and a minimum of 2,512, with a fluctuation of 78 points.
Today's hot opportunities:
1. Pump raised 600 million at a valuation of 4 billion. Gate briefly launched the TGE page and then deleted it; TGE is about to be launched. Participation depends on the economic model; consider short-term but remain bearish long-term.
2. #Wlfi is expected to go live soon, and Bybit is taking frequent actions. The issuance of tokens from these two major projects will absorb market liquidity, so be mentally prepared.
3. SOL and ETH are performing well in the on-chain meme market. SOL is supported by Bonk, while ETH has #AP, #MANYU, etc. ETH funds show signs of returning, which deserves special attention.
4. CEX, except for Bonk, is performing mediocrely, with some targets being manipulated by wild funds, lacking participation value.
5. The number of #Bonk holders has reached 1 million, and 1 trillion tokens will be burned, valued at about 22.81 million dollars.
BTC
Bitcoin has ultimately come down and started to follow a volatile route. In my article yesterday (July 7 analysis: Bitcoin's three tests at 110,000, will it hit a new high tonight? Vitalik supports Ethereum, is the bull market engine restarting? Meme coins are skyrocketing! On-chain hot money is going crazy!), I mentioned: 'Previous high positions are usually good short positions.' I started shorting from 109,486 and made a profit of 103.84%, feeling comfortable.
Currently, there is clearly a lack of funds in the market, and with the influence of news, it is difficult for BTC to break through historical highs. If there is favorable news, it may increase the probability of a breakout; the current rise may be a false breakout; yesterday's market was indeed somewhat confusing.
Looking at it now, we need to closely monitor the support level at 105,000, which is the key defensive line for bulls. If it breaks below 107,300, it could drop to 105,800. I still tend to short on rallies, as the market funds are insufficient to support a rise to 110,000. But if it really reaches 110,000, I will short without hesitation.
ETH
In the early session, ETH rebounded to a maximum of 2557, with limited space, building momentum for harvesting. Today, pay attention to the effectiveness of the support retest and the correlation with BTC's movements.
Short position suggestion: remain bearish and observe, take orders in the 2580-2600 range, set stop loss at 30-40 dollars, and wait for a short confirmation below 2550.
Long position suggestion: consider rebounds in the 2430-2450 range, focus on short-term rebounds in the 2460-2480 range, and set strict stop losses.
Altcoin
SOL
This coin is strong, maintaining above 148, with short positions making 62.43%. A drop below 145 and 142 will lead to a significant decline, looking at least towards 130. Last night's short positions are currently profitable. With a 4-hour volume contraction, if BTC declines, SOL will follow. Set a stop loss above, I plan to hold on a bit.
H
This position has little remaining. When a new coin reaches its peak, the decline has no bottom. Open short positions during breakthroughs; the manipulative funds may pull up the highs as expected. Don’t be tempted by short-term 1-2x gains; after the peak is established, the drop can be severe, and the target should be a 5-10x space. Stay calm during washouts and rebounds, focusing on the overall structure and rhythm.
NEWT
This short position has been held for a long time. There was a consideration to take profits in between, but the rebound was weak and the volume was obviously low, indicating a false move. No volume and no continuation mean a destined decline. The key is to watch the volume and trend; a weak rebound is exactly a point to increase short positions. Hold the short firmly and don’t be fooled.
The next month should revolve around the game of tariffs and monetary policy. July has almost no suspense, while the tariffs in August and the monetary policy in September could bring a flurry of news and increased volatility in these two months!
Is the current market seeing a low market cap coin doubling every day? Then harvesting a wave before starting a continuous downward trend? myx, vic, and now fis; who will be next?
On-chain
This month's on-chain focus is expected to be the battle between WLFI and PUMP, with PUMP having already started to heat up. PUMP's public fundraising scale is 4 billion, but the valuation is relatively high, making the probability of returns limited and a small chance of becoming a VC bailout. Looking forward to WLFI's performance; if Trump calls out again, it may push WLFI into meme territory, deviating from reasonable valuation.
The old king has fallen, and the new king has risen; Bonk may become the new darling of active funds. Recently, the number of players on Pump has decreased, and the core issue is still liquidity. After WLFI issues tokens, market funds will be more dispersed, affecting liquidity. Although PUMP is bearish in the long term, short-term speculation still requires caution.