Trump's tariffs remain in limbo, the market is mired in a fog of uncertainty
At midnight tonight, the decision on Trump's tariffs will be revealed. Although it is imminent, a glimmer of 'comfort' has emerged: the implementation period has been postponed from July 8 to August 1. However, this move is not a calming pill; instead, it plants seeds of greater uncertainty in the market, revealing a high level of elasticity in its policy bottom line.
The delay may hide potential risks, and the cryptocurrency market's cyclical rhythm faces challenges. The classic model is being substantially disturbed. Repeated policy changes have led to a stalemate at high levels—lack of upward momentum, insufficient pullbacks, and the crucial technical correction power window has invisibly dissipated.
What is more concerning is the data lag. Even if tariffs are imposed in August, the negative impacts on inflation, corporate profits, etc., will take at least two months to be transmitted to the market, likely only becoming apparent in October. This not only squeezes the year-end market window but also clouds the prospects for a Fed interest rate cut in September—firm data is needed to support decisions.
Long-term layout is shrouded in uncertainty, while short-term strategies are gradually becoming a means of coping. Ordinary investors find it difficult to escape passivity in this environment. Focusing on key positions for long-short transitions and accumulating small profits to increase positions is a pragmatic choice amidst volatility.
After the results are announced tonight, a new game begins. Market balance awaits reconstruction.
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