When safe-haven becomes a global consensus, the brilliance of traditional gold is putting the narrative of 'digital gold' in the crypto world in an awkward position.
The People's Bank of China announced significant data on July 7: gold reserves increased for the eighth consecutive month, reaching 73.9 million ounces by the end of June, setting a new historical high. This is just the tip of the iceberg of the global central bank 'gold buying frenzy'—over 90% of central banks have stated they will continue to increase gold holdings, a historic peak.
At the same time, Bitcoin, touted as 'digital gold', has repeatedly exposed its risk asset nature amid market turmoil. During the surge of gold by 8% during the Middle East conflict, Bitcoin plummeted by 15% due to a flash loan attack; institutional funds have voted with their feet: gold ETFs saw a net inflow of $36.8 billion this year, while Bitcoin ETFs faced an outflow of $1.46 billion.
Why is the central bank buying gold aggressively? The faith in the dollar is collapsing.
Dollar Credit Crisis: In June, the dollar index plummeted 2.5% to 96.9, hitting a three-year low. Concerns about the surge in the U.S. fiscal deficit (expected to reach 6.5% of GDP by 2025) and the politicization of monetary policy are accelerating the global 'de-dollarization' process.
Strategic Reserve Reconstruction: China's gold reserve ratio is only 7%, far below the global average of 15%. Continued accumulation is not only to optimize the structure of foreign exchange reserves but also to pave the way for the internationalization of the Renminbi.
Triple Driving Logic: Global geopolitical conflicts, inflation pressure, and central bank gold purchases are forming a combined force. The World Gold Council states: 'Gold remains a strategic asset in times of turmoil.'
Digital Gold? The Harsh Reality of Bitcoin.
The crypto world is keen on comparing Bitcoin to 'digital gold', but the data reveals a cold reality:
Risk Attributes Exposed: Bitcoin has a correlation of up to 0.8 with the Nasdaq index, resembling tech stocks more than safe-haven assets. When Trump’s tariff policy triggered market panic, funds flowed from Bitcoin to gold, causing Bitcoin futures' open interest to drop by 12%.
Regulatory Vulnerability: Although the Trump administration's 'National Bitcoin Strategic Reserve' policy once pushed the price to $120,000, a single hawkish statement from the Federal Reserve caused it to plummet. The scale of BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has reached $34.3 billion, but its volatility far exceeds that of gold ETFs.
Gold vs. Bitcoin: Replacement or Coexistence?
In the short term, both present a competitive relationship for funds:
Panic-driven Alternatives: During market turmoil, gold is a safe haven for funds, while Bitcoin is sold off due to liquidity being drained.
Policy Game Differences: Gold benefits from safe-haven demand, while Bitcoin relies on regulatory easing and technological iteration. If the Federal Reserve cuts rates in September (with a probability exceeding 95%), Bitcoin may regain upward momentum and challenge $150,000.
In the long run, technological integration may break the opposition:
Ant Chain's 'Gold Savings Treasure' has surpassed 200 tons in annual transaction volume, with physical gold tokenization breaking down the boundaries between traditional and crypto.
RWA (Real Asset Tokenization) track is exploding, with the rise of gold stablecoins like PAXG, integrating blockchain efficiency with gold's value preservation attributes.
The Second Half of 2025: A Dual-Track Wealth Logic
The game between gold and crypto assets will become more complex:
Gold Price Bull-Bear Duel: HSBC is bullish on gold (raising the average price for 2025 to $3,215), while Citigroup predicts that the gold price will drop to $2,700 in 2026. Bull and bear forces are fiercely competing around the $3,300 mark.
Key Variables for Bitcoin: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is the core catalyst. Standard Chartered predicts a 25 basis point cut in Q3, which, if realized, will activate liquidity in the crypto market.
Central Bank Gold Purchases Continue: Countries like China increasing their gold reserves is an inevitable trend, as distrust in the dollar has become a tidal wave of the era.
Future Outlook: Survival rules in the age of greed.
When BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF size surpasses its own gold ETF, traditional financial giants are already laying out a dual-track configuration. Gold is the shield, crypto is the spear—central bank gold purchases warn us: true safe-haven assets need a millennia of consensus endorsement, while Bitcoin's 'digital gold' path still requires tempering through fire.
For sharp investors, the RWA track may be the ultimate reconciliation between gold and Bitcoin: tokenized physical gold is being reborn on the blockchain, which might be the ultimate answer to withstand bull and bear markets.
History never repeats itself, but it often rhymes.
When gold piles up in central bank vaults like a mountain.
In the world of Bitcoin's code.
A war to prove 'value storage' has just begun.
At this moment, would you choose to hold gold or a private key?
#黄金 #黄金vs比特币
Top support is in place! Focus on convergence; convergence lacks only one thing: a crazy ambition like yours!
$BTC