The huge profits in the cryptocurrency world are always reserved for those who see through the script—right now, the sideways movement at 2577 is the sharpening stone before the dealer cuts meat! (Data anchors the latest price in the chart at 2577.27, with Fibonacci levels accurate to two decimal places)
The bloody logic behind huge profits
Look at the chart: that 30-point surge in the afternoon was actually a classic 'fishing line'!
Fatal flaw 1: The high at 2604.98 (100% Fibonacci level) quickly retraced, with the volume shrinking by 53% compared to the true breakout on July 5 (compare the height of the green bars in the chart)
Fatal flaw 2: 28,000 ETH from Grayscale is still stuck at Coinbase (not moved on-chain), the giant whale with a cost of only 2400 can smash the market at any time
Fatal flaw 3: The right-side sell column shows that the order volume at 2600 is three times that of buy orders, while the retail long-short ratio has soared to 1.89 (historical data: the liquidation rate exceeds 90% at this value)
Old retail investors' bloody case
Last month, when the spot ETF was approved, the main force used the same method to create a 'false breakout with real slaughter':
First pull the market to 2870 to activate leverage and chase long
Using 2600 call options as bait (open interest surged by 400% at that time)
Suddenly crashing to 2350, 150,000 people liquidated
Today's replay signal is ready: Deribit has mountains of 2600 call options tonight!
The profit password is cracked tonight
Long position conditions (probability 20%):
Volume increases with three consecutive bullish candles, stabilizing at 2605 (strictly according to the 100% level of 2604.98 in the chart)
Bitcoin surged to 58,000 (correlation coefficient 92%)
SEC's sudden approval of the ETF (Bloomberg reports a probability of less than 15%)
Short signal (probability 80%):
Break below the 38.2% Fibonacci level of 2545.74 (purple oval in the chart)
MACD red bars continue to expand (sub-chart indicator turning bearish)
Grayscale address movement (28,000 ETH will trigger a market smash)
Three tricks for retail survival
Holders: Reduce positions by 50% at the current price of 2577, keep profits above 2590 (to prevent spikes)
Bottom-fishing party: Placing orders at 2547.17 (1.4 points above the 38.2% level of 2545.74), doubling positions at 2522.69 (50% level)
Escape mantra:
Break 2545 to cut loss, break 2522 to go short!
(In the chart, 2522.69 is marked as a mass grave, breaking this level will definitely accelerate)
Which side are you on tonight?
The dealer has a good machine gun at 2605 and a dug grave at 2522
A. Break 2605 to chase long (bet on SEC's divine assistance)
B. Break 2545 to go short (eat the panic sell-off)
The market is dangerous; only by banding together can we win! The strongest team of entanglement only accepts madmen with inflated ambitions!