Dogecoin is struggling to regain upward momentum after a sharp decline from late 2024 highs. On-chain data from Glassnode shows Actual Price Distribution UTXO (URPD), Dogecoin faces strong resistance areas at $0.18; $0.21 and $0.36.
Analyst Ali Martinez reported that approximately 13.4 billion DOGE was last moved at $0.18. This is the second-largest holding group after the support level of $0.0739.
At the level of $0.21, approximately 10.85 billion DOGE has changed hands, indicating another potential selling area. The level of $0.36 accounts for 5.73 billion DOGE, representing the third significant resistance area.
This concentration indicates that many holders may exit their positions as the price reaches breakeven, applying downward pressure on DOGE's price trajectory.
Technical Outlook: Important Fibonacci Levels Are Unfolding
Dogecoin reached a high of $0.486 in November 2024 before entering a prolonged downtrend. Currently, it is trading just above the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.786 at $0.174. A breakout above this level could trigger a move towards $0.22, aligning with the 0.618 retracement area.
The chart also shows that $0.21 and $0.36 remain significant resistance areas. They align with previous support areas and currently act as selling pressure zones due to volume clusters.
If DOGE cannot hold above $0.16, it may revert to the support area of $0.09. Currently, the token remains within a consolidation range, with strong resistance above and limited upward momentum.
Elon Musk's Political Moves May Shift Market Sentiment
Elon Musk recently announced the establishment of the America Party after the July 4 poll. Nearly two-thirds of the 1.24 million voters support this idea. Musk criticized the U.S. political system as corrupt and inefficient, describing it as a 'one-party system.'
This move deepens the rift between Musk and Donald Trump. He publicly questioned Trump's 'beautiful big bill,' which could add an additional $3.3 trillion to national debt.
Musk also criticized Trump's debt reduction initiative based on DOGE. In response, Trump warned that Musk's party could split Republican votes in 2026, raising concerns among conservatives.