In a conversation with the podcast The Bitcoin Economy, Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart argued that the next and potentially greatest institutional demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds will not come from pension funds, endowments, or sovereign asset managers.

Instead, it will appear when the registered investment advisor (RIA) network of this country finally gets complete discretionary approval to introduce Bitcoin ETFs to ordinary customers.

Seyffart said, 'The biggest bullish case for ETFs is the unlocking of RIAs in 2025.' 'Currently, the majority of assets are stuck at an intermediary level, where if clients specifically request to buy a Bitcoin ETF, advisors can act—but advisors cannot initiate the recommendation.'

The Biggest Bullish Case for Bitcoin in 2025

Seyffart has broken down the compliance bottleneck into a traffic light scheme that most financial advisors will recognize. A red company completely prohibits Bitcoin; a yellow company allows non-solicited purchases ('If you come to me and ask, I can do it'); and a green company allows advisors to request allocations ('I can suggest you invest two percent of your portfolio in Bitcoin').

Wire-house broker-dealers—still holding trillions of dollars—largely remain in the red or gold camp, paralyzed by years-long due diligence committees. In contrast, independent RIAs are 'early adopters,' Seyffart notes, as they 'don't have to wait for a due diligence group of people sitting in New York.'

However, even among independent advisors, most outsource the construction of portfolios for centralized model portfolios; until those models label Bitcoin ETFs as qualified holdings, the decision-making uptake will remain muted.

Seyffart's focus in 2025 is calendar-based, not schedule-based: the first calendar year after the launch provides compliance groups with twelve months of daily NAV history—often a challenging requirement before a new ETF can transition from a 'gold' state to a 'green' state. He said, 'Typically, it can take two to three years before an ETF is approved,' but the extraordinary scale and liquidity of the spot Bitcoin trading group have accelerated that cycle.

Importantly, the next Form 13F reporting deadline on August 15, 2025, will reveal holdings for the second quarter as of June 30. Seyffart hopes the data will confirm that 'more RIAs are online and [are] buying this for their clients,' providing the first concrete measure of the green light transition.

If the gatekeeping withdrawal is controlled, model portfolio architects can incorporate Bitcoin's historically uncorrelated returns into strategic allocation frameworks. In turn, that would grant advisors the legal protection to attract Bitcoin exposure, unleashing a spin of cash flow into the market.

Seyffart warns that similar compliance groups will require tough fiduciary justifications—volatility, custodianship, and tax treatment remain current concerns—but he argues that ETFs now provide a familiar wrapper for any asset platform.

Seyffart's thesis is that the moment a large volume of compliance committees transitions from yellow to green—allowing advisors to recommend Bitcoin instead of just trading it—the influx of capital could overshadow everything seen so far. Whether that shift occurs in the next 12 months will determine, in his view, 'the biggest bullish case for Bitcoin.'