1. Market overview: 'Calm' before the big fluctuations
Bitcoin reached a high of 109700 USD last week, currently oscillating between 108000 and 110000, which is a clear 'accumulation phase'. However, there are actually undercurrents at play:
🐋 Frequent on-chain transfers by whales, over 80,000 BTC entering OTC circulation in batches;
📈 The U.S. bond market is turbulent, with funds gradually moving towards BTC;
🌐 The political game is heating up, U.S.-China trade tariff negotiations are about to peak on July 9.
In other words: The market is brewing a severe mid-level fluctuation, and the $100,000 threshold is the frontline of this 'battle'.
Two or three major variables determine BTC's future direction
1️⃣ Large whale sell-offs: OTC transactions occurring in batches, not a panic signal
On-chain data shows that early holders (BTC addresses mined in 2010) have recently started to transfer out funds in batches, with a daily average of about 2000 coins, and have not concentrated their flows into exchanges.
✅ Analysis: These 'ancient large holders' usually opt for over-the-counter bulk trading to reduce price impact, so the recent BTC fluctuations are more due to 'market nerves being tense' rather than real selling pressure.
2️⃣ Tariff negotiations: Directional choices may emerge around July 9.
U.S.-China-European multilateral trade negotiations are still stuck at a critical juncture; whether to impose high tariffs will affect the trajectory of global risk assets:
If a partial agreement is reached, BTC is expected to break through 112,000 and test 120,000;
If negotiations break down, the Dow is expected to fall 3%, and BTC may dip below $100,000, testing the support level at $98,000.
3️⃣ Musk's 'American Party' endorsement is raising BTC's political asset attributes
Musk publicly supports Bitcoin, and institutions like Grayscale are also laying out political risk hedging assets, indicating that BTC is transitioning from a 'speculative item' to a 'quasi-sovereign asset'.
3. Resonance judgment between on-chain data and technical aspects
Number of active BTC addresses
Rebounded to 790,000/day
Investor activity is recovering, indicating a non-panic state
USDT on-chain issuance
This week +500 million USD
Sufficient funds indicate that the main force is waiting for the right entry opportunity
BTC inflow to exchanges
Low-level oscillation
Indicates limited selling pressure, primarily focused on coin accumulation
📈 Technical pattern analysis:
Support levels: 105500 (short-term) / 98000 (medium-term strong support)
Resistance levels: 112000 (previous high) / 115000 (long-short dividing line)
Trend judgment: Daily MACD golden cross, candlesticks show higher highs and higher lows, consistent with a fluctuating upward trend
4. Practical strategy: Steady the position and wait for a key breakthrough
Suggestions for holders:
Continue to hold core positions in BTC/ETH;
If the price breaks below 105000, reduce positions by 30% and wait for stabilization;
If the price breaks through 112,000, consider increasing positions with a target of 115,000.
Short-term trading strategy:
Range trading: sell high and buy low between 108,000 and 110,000;
Stop-loss line: Set a stop-loss of no more than 500 points for each operation to avoid expanding drawdowns;
Pay attention to news nodes: Avoid heavy positions for directional bets around July 9.
Strategies for managing volatility:
Huddling together for warmth: Following the right rhythm and understanding the rhythm is more important than 'betting on news';
Position diversification: no heavy positions, no full positions, no attachment to positions;
Leave some room: Allow space for funds, emotions, and the market to adjust.
100,000 is both a support level and an emotional bottom line
The battle for Bitcoin around $100,000 is not just a price fluctuation, but a game of long and short logic. Retail investors watch the candlestick charts, institutions watch the signals; retail investors focus on news, while smart money pays attention to the structure.
This week, the market may face a directional choice, so please stay calm and enhance risk control.
