A group of long positions has regrouped just below the current price of BTC, with a key support level around $105,600. However, there is a large accumulation of short stop-loss orders just below $113,300, which is still increasing today.
From the trend structure, long positions still dominate; however, there is a phenomenon that makes me hesitate: the rapid decline in spot premium indicates that short positions are closing out while long positions are opening new ones. This signal of 'shorts conceding + longs entering' makes me reluctant to chase longs.
I have a strange habit: whenever the market is generally bullish, I instinctively become cautious. Although the trading system may suggest going long, I set my stop-loss levels tighter than most.
Currently, the expectation is that the short stop-loss area above is likely to be broken and reach new highs within July. However, before the breakout, the market will not let us make money easily, just like the major range breakout in 2024, when there was a huge division in the market. If it weren’t for Trump's overwhelming victory bringing in massive funds, the market would have taken longer to stir.
The current market lacks a strong bullish push similar to the 'Trump effect.' The best outcome of the tariff negotiations would be to maintain a 10% tax rate extension, which does not bring significant buying power. If a country hardens its stance on tariffs after 90 days, it could instead become an excuse for a washout. Under such circumstances, stubbornly holding onto a bullish trend loses its rationale.
Therefore, my strategy is to wait until after July 9 when trade issues become clearer before taking action. As long as there are no macroeconomic shocks, I will continue to look bullish and go long; however, during this period of event-driven uncertainty, I choose to observe first. Recently, regardless of whether friends are losing or making money, it has been advised to appropriately reduce trading frequency. The more consistent the market expectations, the more likely unexpected occurrences will happen.
Opportunities are fleeting, and a correction is imminent. Get ready to buy the dip in spot assets; the profits from altcoins are waiting for you! Doubling your investment is not a dream. Click on my avatar to follow me, and let’s join the bull market feast together!
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