Trump's 'Tariff Nuke' is about to explode! The crypto market faces a historic choice.
In the early hours of today, Beijing time, Trump dropped a bombshell on social media: At noon on July 7, Eastern Time, the US will send tariff letters to 12 countries worldwide, with the highest tax rate possibly reaching 70%! The trigger for this 'Trade War 2.0' is the complete breakdown of negotiations between the Trump administration and the EU, Japan, India, and other economies— the EU refused to open its auto market, Japan retaliated hard on agricultural tariffs, and India even threatened to impose retaliatory tariffs on the US. Trump directly stated: 'Accept it or give it up!' The crypto market must be alert: this tariff storm could become the last straw that breaks Bitcoin's back!
History Repeats: How will tariff policies wash over the crypto market?
Looking back to February 2025, when Trump first announced a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico, Bitcoin plummeted 6% within an hour, with over 700,000 liquidations in 24 hours amounting to $2.04 billion! Now the tariff rate has doubled to 70%, covering key economies like the EU, Japan, and India, and the market panic index has skyrocketed to historical extremes!
Logic Chain 1: Economic Recession Expectations → Safe-Haven Funds Withdraw
Tariffs have caused global trade costs to soar, squeezing corporate profits. Last Friday, the three major US stock indices collectively plunged, with Tesla falling 5% in a single day. Funds are madly fleeing from high-risk assets to safe-haven assets like the dollar and gold!
Logic Chain 2: Uncontrolled Inflation → Federal Reserve Forced to Raise Interest Rates
Powell has acknowledged: 'Trump's tariffs are the biggest obstacle to interest rate cuts!' If tariffs push the US CPI to 4.5%, the Federal Reserve may be forced to resume rate hikes, and Bitcoin, as a 'non-yielding asset', will face deadly selling pressure!
Logic Chain 3: Escalation of Geopolitical Conflicts → Regulatory Storm Approaches
The EU, Japan, and other countries may unite to respond, with the risk of a global trade system collapse surging. Central banks may accelerate the launch of CBDCs, directly squeezing the survival space of Bitcoin!
Market Reaction: Institutions have already fled while retail investors are still dreaming?
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust: On July 6, a net outflow of over $300 million in a single day, setting a historical record; institutions are 'voting with their feet'!
Coinbase Data: The number of large transfer addresses plummeted 40% in 24 hours; whales may have completely exited!
Musk-Related Coin: Dogecoin plummeted 12% in 24 hours, and Tesla concept coins collectively crashed; the 'Musk Safeguard' myth is completely shattered!
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Short-Term Players:
Keep a close eye on Trump's Twitter updates; the moment the tariff letters are sent, Bitcoin may flash crash to the $78,000 support level, and if it rebounds to $82,000, short it, with a stop-loss set at 3%!
If the EU announces countermeasures, immediately short Ethereum with a target price of $2,800!
Long-Term Holders:
If Bitcoin falls below the strong support level of $75,000, decisively liquidate and short; target price $68,000!
If Trump compromises and postpones tariffs, take profits in batches above $85,000 and maintain a 20% cash position!
Contract Traders:
Buy put options expiring on July 12 with a strike price of $78,000 to hedge against black swan risks!
Beware of 'Policy Black Swans'; set a 5% automatic stop-loss to avoid liquidation!
Ultimate Prophecy: Will Bitcoin fall back to $50,000?
The essence of this tariff storm is the traditional financial system's 'ultimate encirclement' of cryptocurrencies! If Trump remains hardline, Bitcoin may repeat the 2022 bear market, dropping back to $50,000; if countries compromise, Bitcoin may rebound to $90,000, but the upside potential is severely compressed!
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