The cryptocurrency earthquake alarm has sounded! The Bitcoin memory pool, once regarded as the "trading heart" of the market pulse, is collapsing in free fall! #非农就业数据来袭
According to the latest disclosure by the on-chain data monitoring platform The Block, as of July 7, the number of pending transactions in the Bitcoin memory pool has plummeted from 150,000 at the end of 2024 to 15,000, a drop of more than 90%, setting a record low since October 2023. What's more terrifying is that the median transaction fee for a single transaction has fallen below 1 satoshi/byte, and the proportion of transaction fees in the miners' income structure has fallen below the "life and death line" of 2% - this on-chain liquidity crisis is pushing the Bitcoin ecosystem to the edge of a cliff!
1. Behind the “zeroing” of the memory pool: retail investors are retreating, and institutions are “harvesting” chips?
Joao Wedson, CEO of crypto data analysis platform Alphractal, pointed out: "Idle memory pools are the tombstones of retail investors leaving the market!" On-chain behavior tracking shows that "shrimp" addresses holding less than 1 BTC have a net outflow of more than 120,000 BTC in the past 30 days, while "shark" addresses holding 10-100 BTC have bucked the trend and accumulated more than 450,000 BTC in 30 days. This extreme differentiation of "small fish die and sharks get fat" exposes that institutions are taking advantage of the market panic period to complete the concentration of chips - when retail investors are desperate to sell due to plummeting fees and transaction delays, Wall Street's quantitative funds have already completed "silent sweeps" in the off-chain OTC market!
2. Countdown to miners’ “starvation”: fee income plummets 98%, and the computing power war is about to break out!
The economic model of miners is experiencing a "double stranglehold": the average daily fee income of the entire network has dropped sharply from US$4.7 million in October 2024 to US$593,000, while the cost of electricity and equipment has risen rigidly. Cryptoquant warned that if the proportion of fees continues to be less than 2%, miners will be forced to shut down high-energy-consuming models such as S19 XP, and the computing power of the entire network may plummet by more than 30%! What's more dangerous is that although the upgrade of the isolated witness technology has increased the transaction capacity of a single block by 400%, it has led to an increase in excess computing power. When miners' income cannot cover costs, the "51% attack" is no longer a theoretical threat, but a realistic option for computing power oligarchs!
3. History will not simply repeat itself, but it will rhyme with the same rhythm: Will the 2018 bear market repeat itself?
Looking back at the bear market in 2018, the transaction volume of Bitcoin memory pool also experienced a "death cross" after the price plummeted, and then the computing power of the entire network was halved and exchanges collapsed one after another. Now, Vitalik Buterin said in the latest interview that "Bitcoin needs its own ZK-Rollups", and the prophecy in Satoshi Nakamoto's white paper that "the robustness of the system lies in the tolerance of imperfections" is facing the most severe test. When the trust chain of miners, retail investors, and exchanges is broken at the same time, Bitcoin may usher in the darkest "on-chain ice age" in its 16 years of existence!
The collapse of the memory pool is not a technical failure, but a signal of the collapse of market confidence! When the "sharks" take the opportunity to devour the bloody chips, when miners struggle on the survival line, when the exchange's reserve certificate becomes the emperor's new clothes - at this moment, are you still paralyzing yourself with "long-term holding", or have you prepared the escape hatch?
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