The public falling out between Trump and Musk, two super tycoons, is definitely not just a simple war of words. Behind it lies a fierce clash of power, money, and policy, and the cryptocurrency market, especially coins strongly related to these two, is likely to become the eye of the storm, either getting crushed or being used as a pawn. From my observation of the crypto space over the years, celebrity political struggles affecting the market are nothing new, but this time the scale is too large, and we must be vigilant.
1. Dogecoin: Musk's sentiment coin, risk skyrocketing!
Musk's mood directly affects DOGE's rise and fall, and this is almost a consensus in the crypto space. This time, after being publicly criticized by Trump, how could his mood be good? Think about how in June, when their conflict first started, DOGE dropped by 10% in a single day, causing many to get liquidated. Nearly $30 million went up in smoke!
Trump has stated he has the power to cancel SpaceX's government contracts. If he actually takes action and Musk is short on funds, holding $7.65 billion worth of Bitcoin, will he sell coins to save SpaceX? If he sells a large amount of Bitcoin, the entire market will tremble, and DOGE, which is closely tied to him, will definitely be the first to suffer and drop the hardest! This is DOGE's biggest vulnerability: excessive reliance on one person.
2. Trump-themed coin $TRUMP: Beware of insider trading!
These types of coins are essentially speculative around Trump's popularity, with extremely high risk, especially now that he is personally involved in intense struggles. Many of these coins have most of their chips concentrated with the project party, and there are even rumors that the Trump family controls most of them, artificially inflating prices before unlocking them to attract retail investors to take over, and then you know what happens. In June, when he fell out with Musk, $TRUMP crashed by 10%.
Now the Democrats are reportedly investigating whether the Trump family is using these tokens to make money. If this is substantiated, or if the investigation gains traction, these coins could easily drop to zero in no time. Playing with these coins is like dancing on a volcano.
3. Policy bomb: A sword hanging over everyone's head!
The core of their argument is the policy on electric vehicle subsidies and NASA personnel, which might influence national policies and subsequently impact the entire crypto market foundation. If Trump, out of spite or to fulfill a promise, introduces a mega spending bill, like a $5 trillion deficit, the dollar might become even less valuable, leading people to frantically buy gold and Bitcoin, and BTC might truly surge to $120,000. But this is very extreme!
Conversely, if the Federal Reserve has to aggressively raise interest rates to stabilize the dollar, borrowing costs will rise, resulting in less money in the market, and altcoins will definitely suffer severely.
In terms of regulation, the Democrats are likely to take this opportunity to push the SEC to intensify its crackdown on celebrity coins, reopening old cases. Musk has previously been fined $2 billion for randomly tweeting about Dogecoin; it’s uncertain that the SEC won’t bring this up again, even expanding the scope of their crackdown. When regulation tightens, the market panics.
4. Bitcoin: Hard currency in chaotic times?
In extreme panic, when Tesla's stock can drop by $150 billion in a day, equivalent to the total market value evaporation of many altcoins, Bitcoin has recently shown to be relatively resilient, holding around $106,000.
On-chain data shows that there are indeed whales secretly buying Bitcoin while it's down. BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF holdings have surged to $72 billion, indicating that large funds still recognize BTC's hedging properties. A new trend on Wall Street involves shorting Tesla while going long on Bitcoin. The correlation between the two has recently skyrocketed, suggesting that in the eyes of professional players, BTC might really be a safe haven in this chaotic situation.
Old Zhao's survival strategy:
1. For those holding physical assets, especially Bitcoin: Keep a close watch on the $104,000 mark, as this is a strong support level recently. If it breaks below, don’t rush to go all in; wait for it to drop further, for example, consider buying in batches around $98,000 for greater safety.
2. For those hoping to bet on Musk's self-rescue: What does Musk like to do when he’s anxious? Post Dogecoin memes on X to pump the price! If you really want to play with DOGE, you can set a buy order near $0.12 in advance and wait for him to tweet. But this is purely high-risk gambling—small bets can be fun, but big bets can be harmful.
3. Anti-nuclear bomb-level good news: There are rumors that the Trump team may be plotting to include Bitcoin in the national strategic reserves, akin to gold reserves. Although it sounds far-fetched, if it turns out to be true, it would be an explosive piece of good news! If official solid evidence comes out, don't hesitate; focus on compliant tokens linked to real-world assets, like ZBCN, as they will benefit first. However, this is just a rumor, so just listen and don't bet on it prematurely.
In the end, the harsh truth is: The plastic brotherhood between Trump and Musk can shatter in an instant; they can turn against each other faster than flipping a page. But people in the crypto space need to understand that in the power games of billionaires, cryptocurrencies are often just pawns or cannon fodder. Understanding why and how the big shots fight is a thousand times more important than blindly following the hype in trading coins. During market panic, it's better to watch more and act less, holding onto your core assets that you believe in, and not being misled by panic emotions is the key. Remember to protect your principal!
If you currently feel helpless or confused trading in the crypto space, I hope my sharing can provide you with some inspiration and help! Follow me to avoid getting lost; Old Zhao will get you a step ahead and create an information gap with others!#马斯克计划成立美国党 $BTC $DOGE
