1. Overall market performance: blood flows like a river
1. Overall decline in trend:
Bitcoin fell over 1% (currently at $106,000), Ethereum fell nearly 3% (retreating to $2,600), SOL and Dogecoin plummeted by 5% and 7% respectively.
24-hour liquidation $219 million, nearly 90,000 people were liquidated, the largest single liquidation was $2.72 million (Binance-BTC).
2. Catalyst for the crash:
Trump signs (Big and Beautiful Act): tax cuts for wealthy corporations, but may increase US debt by $3.3 trillion over the next 10 years, Moody's has downgraded US credit rating. The market fears that the 'debt bomb' could trigger an economic crisis, leading to capital fleeing to safety.
Countdown to tariff threats: July 9 is the deadline for US-EU/US-India negotiations, the US threatens to impose a 17% tariff on EU agricultural products, India plans retaliatory measures. The risk of trade war is crushing market sentiment.
2. Policies and geopolitics: three knives hanging overhead
1. US fiscal bomb
(Big and Beautiful) Act's core is to reduce corporate taxes, providing short-term economic stimulus, but in the long term may trigger a debt tsunami (US national debt has exceeded $36.2 trillion). Arthur Hayes warns: the act may lead to a contraction in dollar liquidity, and Bitcoin may drop to $90,000-$95,000.
2. Tariff negotiation life-and-death situation (deadline July 9)
If US-EU/US-India talks collapse, global supply chain costs will soar, inflation will rise again → Federal Reserve rate cut will be delayed → risk assets will be under pressure.
Trump has signed a trade letter, will issue tariff notifications to 10-12 countries on Monday, starting from August 1.
3. Federal Reserve rate cut expectations cool down
June non-farm payroll added 147,000 jobs (exceeding expectations), the probability of a rate cut in September dropped from 98% to 80%. Goldman Sachs insists that there will be a rate cut in September, but the market's divergence has widened.
3. Mainstream cryptocurrencies' technical aspects: opportunities amidst crises
1. Bitcoin:
Key support $100,000: has held for 20 consecutive days, bulls have not broken through. But if it fails, look down to $95,000.
Resistance level $112,000: a large number of sell orders are piled up, difficult to break through in the short term.
2. Ethereum: gearing up to challenge $3,000
Corporate funding entry signal: SharpLink Gaming announced buying ETH worth $425 million as reserves, institutional allocation demand is rising.
Technical ascending triangle: if it holds the support range of $2,550-$2,450, after breaking through the resistance at $2,750, the medium-term target is $3,000.
4. XRP massive unlocking: the wolf is coming for Ripple
Another 500 million XRP unlocked (valued at $1.12 billion), a total of 1 billion unlocked in July. However, on the 1st of this month, 400 million were immediately re-locked, whether this time will follow up with re-locking is the focus.
Market reaction is calm: prices have not fluctuated sharply due to Ripple's recent restrained operations, avoiding selling pressure, but be wary of full circulation impacts.
5. Regulatory and industry voices: stablecoins are under siege
Bank of England Governor warns: stablecoins (like USDT, USDC) may undermine trust in fiat currency, triggering risks of digital dollarization.
US Crypto Week Bill Review:
`CLARITY Act` (clarifying token classification)
`Anti-CBDC Act` (against central bank digital currencies)
`GENIUS Act` (regulating stablecoins)
6. Old Zhao's operational advice: defensive counterattack
1. Short-term (before July 9):
Reduce positions in high-leverage contracts, avoid the volatility minefield of tariff negotiations.
Pay attention to the ETH/BTC exchange rate (if it continues to strengthen, it indicates the approaching altcoin season).
2. Medium-term layout window:
July 15 US CPI: if inflation falls, buy the dip on BTC/ETH; if it rebounds, wait for $95,000 to buy Bitcoin.
July 29 Federal Reserve meeting: dovish signal = surge catalyst, start building positions in batches.
Core conclusion
Policy bearishness has created a golden pit, but do not catch falling knives before the 9th!
Bitcoin holding at $100,000 = the foundation of the bull market has not collapsed, Ethereum can accumulate below $2,500.
July script: squat first then jump, survive the tariff negotiations + Federal Reserve easing, August may welcome a violent surge. If you feel helpless or confused trading in the crypto circle, I hope my sharing can inspire and help you! Follow me to avoid getting lost, Old Zhao lets you be one step ahead, creating an information gap with others! #大而美法案 $BTC $ETH $XRP