Author: Hotcoin Research
Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market value of cryptocurrencies is $3.32 trillion, of which BTC accounts for 64.6%, or $2.14 trillion. The market value of stablecoins is $255.3 billion, up 0.83% in the past seven days, of which USDT accounts for 62.45%.
This week, the price of BTC has been range-bound and is currently at $107,945; the price of ETH has been range-bound and is currently at $2,512.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most rose and a small part fell, including: PENGU rose 49.38% in 7 days, BONK rose 27.73% in 7 days, PLUME rose 36.98% in 7 days, and MOODENG rose 31.39% in 7 days.
This week, the net inflow of US Bitcoin spot ETF was US$770 million; the net inflow of US Ethereum spot ETF was US$219.6 million.
The Fear & Greed Index on July 4 was 68 (the index was higher than last week), and the sentiment this week was: 2 days of neutral and 5 days of greed.
Market Forecast:
Stablecoins continued to increase this week, and both Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs in the United States saw net inflows. Both BTC and ETH fluctuated in a range. The RSI index was 47.21, showing neutrality. The Fear and Greed Index was mainly greedy. This week, the United States passed the "Big Beautiful Bill" of tax cuts and spending. The non-agricultural data in June was better than market expectations. The probability that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates unchanged in July was 78.8%.
The price range of BTC is expected to be $106,000-$111,000 next week. You can focus on the US tariff agreement on July 9, which will be a heavy bomb in the summer. It seems that the impact on cryptocurrencies will not be higher than that in February, but it is also worth being vigilant. The wave of tokenization of US stocks is prevailing, and Hotcoin has been launched in this area.
Understand now
Review of the week's major events
1. On June 29, the Trump family crypto project WLFI forwarded data on the X platform showing that the trading volume of its stablecoin USD1 in the past 24 hours reached 1.25 billion US dollars, a record high, second only to Tether (USDT) and USDC;
2. On June 30, Cathay Pacific Haitong Securities released a research report saying that more Hong Kong securities firms will deploy virtual asset businesses in the future. In addition, the market has gradually entered a performance window period recently, and the brokerage sector is expected to exceed expectations in terms of earnings. In the context of a stable stock market, we continue to recommend opportunities for undervalued and under-allocated weighted stocks, and non-bank weighted stocks have shifted from "marginal thinking of fundamentals" to "total thinking of total risk-return ratio." Especially under the recent policy of encouraging red chips and H shares to return to A, non-bank weighted stocks in Hong Kong stocks have benefited more;
3. On June 30, REX-OSPREY CEO announced that the Solana ETF supporting staking will begin trading on Wednesday;
4. On June 30, digital broker Robinhood (HOOD) announced on Monday that it will expand its crypto business through a series of new initiatives, including developing its own blockchain network based on Arbitrum and launching tokenized stock trading. The company launched a tokenized stock product based on the Ethereum Layer 2 network Arbitrum for European users today, covering more than 200 US stocks and ETFs, supporting all-day trading on weekdays. Robinhood said in a statement that this move will upgrade its European crypto application to a "crypto-driven all-around investment platform";
5. On July 1, Bloomberg reported that a cryptocurrency company associated with the family of U.S. President Donald Trump raised $220 million to purchase Bitcoin and digital asset mining equipment, according to a document filed on Monday. The company is called American Bitcoin, and its supporters include Trump's son Eric Trump. According to documents filed by the company's major shareholder Hut 8 Corp., American Bitcoin issued new shares to private investors last Friday. About $10 million worth of shares were sold in Bitcoin rather than in U.S. dollars;
6. On July 1, according to CNBC, stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL.K) is applying to establish a national trust bank in the United States;
7. On July 1, according to PR Newswire, Amber International (NASDAQ: AMBR), a crypto financial institution service and solution provider under Amber Group, announced that it has successfully signed a private placement subscription agreement totaling US$25.5 million, with Mile Green, Harvest Capital, Pantera Capital, Choco Up and others participating in the investment;
8. On July 2, Cryptoslate reported that in the first half of 2025, listed companies purchased a total of 245,510 bitcoins, more than twice the amount purchased by ETFs in the same period (118,424 BTC);
9. On July 2, The Block reported that according to an announcement by Ethereum core developer Zak Cole on the X platform, a new organization called Ethereum Community Foundation (ECF) has been established to support institutional-level adoption of Ethereum infrastructure and ultimately drive up ETH prices;
10. On July 3, TheBlock reported that the Trump family has made about $620 million in profits from cryptocurrency projects in recent months, accounting for nearly 10% of the Trump family's $6.4 billion net worth;
11. July 3, the full committee hearing on crypto market structure will be held next Wednesday, July 9, with Ripple CEO and others in attendance;
12. On July 4, according to market news, Trump’s tax cut and spending bill (“Big Beautiful Bill”) was passed by the House of Representatives;
13. On July 4, on-chain detective ZachXBT posted on social media that the UAE authorities have detained Ildar Ilham, the founder of the decentralized financial protocol WhiteRock Finance, and accused him of committing a $30 million fraud through the gambling platform ZKasino.
Macroeconomics
1. On July 1, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart released the latest forecast of the approval probability of crypto spot ETFs by the end of 2025. A new wave of ETF approvals will come in the second half of 2025. Among them, the probability of approval for portfolio/index funds, Litecoin, SOL and XRP is 95%, and the probability of approval for Dogecoin, HBAR, Cardano, Polkadot and Avalanche is 90%. The probability of approval for SUI is 60%, and the probability of approval for Tron/TRX and Pengu is 50%;
2. On July 3, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States in June were 147,000, which was expected to be 110,000. The previous value was revised from 139,000 to 144,000.
3. On July 3, the US unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, an unexpected decline. The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States in June were 147,000, better than market expectations.
4. On July 4, US President Trump: plans to impose tariffs ranging from 60% to 70% and from 10% to 20% on different countries. Countries will start paying these tariffs on August 1. Letters about tariffs will start to be sent this Friday. It is expected that 10 to 12 countries will receive relevant notifications on Friday;
5. On July 2, according to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 78.8%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 21.2%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 8.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 72.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 18.8%.
ETF
According to statistics, from June 30 to July 4, the net inflow of US Bitcoin spot ETF was US$770 million; as of July 4, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of US$23.288 billion, currently holding US$20.146 billion, and IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds US$76.297 billion. The total market value of US Bitcoin spot ETF is US$138.086 billion.
US Ethereum spot ETF net inflow: US$219.6 million.
Predicting the future
Upcoming Events
1. Bitcoin Asia 2025 will be held at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre from August 28 to 29;
2. WebX Asia 2025 will be held in Tokyo, Japan from August 25 to 26, 2025;
3. TOKEN2049 Singapore 2025 will be held in Singapore from October 1 to 2, 2025.
Project Progress
1. Aethir Edge Token Economics 2.0 will be launched on July 13, introducing a staking-driven reward mechanism. Users need to stake ATH to participate in the rewards, which are divided into Bronze, Silver and Gold levels, and can receive up to 240 ATH/day in rewards.
Important Events
1. The tariff negotiation deadline between the United States and the European Union is extended to July 9;
2. July 8, 12:30, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision;
3. July 9, 9:30 am, China’s June CPI annual rate;
4. July 9, 10:00, New Zealand Reserve Bank interest rate decision;
5. At 20:30 on July 10, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending July 5 (10,000).
Token Unlock
1. EigenLayer (EIGEN) will unlock 1.29 million tokens on July 9, worth approximately $1.45 million, accounting for 0.41% of the circulation;
2. IOTA (IOTA) will unlock 15.19 million tokens on July 9, worth $2.37 million, accounting for 0.39% of the circulation;
3. Movement (MOVE) unlocked 50 million tokens on July 9, worth approximately $8.09 million, accounting for 1.92% of the circulation;
4. Immutable (IMX) will unlock 24.25 million tokens on July 11, worth approximately $10.55 million, accounting for 1.31% of the circulation;
5. Optimism (OP) will unlock 4.47 million tokens on July 11, worth approximately $2.4 million, accounting for 0.26% of the circulation;
6. Aptos (APT) will unlock 11.31 million tokens on July 12, worth approximately US$49.99 million, accounting for 1.75% of the circulation.
about Us
As the core investment and research center of the Hotcoin ecosystem, Hotcoin Research focuses on providing professional in-depth analysis and forward-looking insights for global crypto asset investors. We have built a three-in-one service system of "trend analysis + value mining + real-time tracking". Through in-depth analysis of cryptocurrency industry trends, multi-dimensional evaluation of potential projects, and 24-hour market volatility monitoring, combined with weekly (Hotcoin Selection) strategy live broadcasts and (Blockchain Today's Headlines) daily news delivery, we provide investors at different levels with accurate market interpretation and practical strategies. Relying on cutting-edge data analysis models and industry resource networks, we continue to empower novice investors to establish a cognitive framework, help professional institutions capture alpha returns, and jointly seize value growth opportunities in the Web3 era.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and investment carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors fully understand these risks and invest within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.
Website：https://lite.hotcoingex.cc/r/Hotcoinresearch
X： x.com/Hotcoin_Academy
Mail：[email protected]
