Recently, the U.S. political scene has staged a drama of 'former allies tearing each other apart': the passage of the (Big Beautiful Act) strongly pushed by Trump, Musk's furious establishment of the 'American Party', and the repeated friction of Bitcoin and Dogecoin caught in between. Onlookers may be confused: what’s the relation between these two events? Why is the crypto community suffering? Let’s clarify the logic in the simplest terms!
Core contradiction: Who's cheese is the Big Beautiful Act moving?
1. The bill's content stepped on Musk's 'landmine' by canceling electric vehicle subsidies: The bill cuts the $7,500 tax credit for each electric vehicle (Tesla's sales rely on this policy for 30%), and JPMorgan estimates this will directly chop off 50%+ of Tesla's profits.
Debt bomb: Raising the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, the deficit could increase by $3.3 trillion over the next decade, which Musk criticized as 'bankrupting America'.
- Suppressing tech giants: SpaceX's $20 billion government contract threatened with scrutiny, AI research funding also 'hijacked' by the Department of Defense.
2. Musk's counterattack: Establishing the American Party
- The direct trigger was the passage of the bill, and Musk announced the establishment of a new party the next day, claiming to represent '80% of the silent moderates'.
- Deep motivations: Commercial interests (to protect Tesla) + political ambitions (to break the two-party monopoly), even wanting to promote policies for AI regulation, space exploration, and other 'tech utopia' initiatives.
**Key point**: Trump originally hoped Musk would help him with 'government downsizing', but the bill ended up giving subsidies to traditional energy (oil) and stabbed Tesla in the back — former allies instantly became enemies. BTC and DOGE are experiencing stark contrasts.
1. Market panic: Reason: The bill requires stablecoins to be pegged 1:1 to Treasury bonds, tightening liquidity and raising trading costs, impacting decentralized exchanges (DEX).
2. $BTC : Long-term becomes the 'safe haven winner'?
Short-term bearish: Policy uncertainty triggers sell-offs, leveraged players face severe losses.
- Long-term bullish:
→ Huge deficits weaken the dollar's credibility; Grayscale reports that funds may shift to BTC and other 'non-sovereign store of value assets'.
→ 'Bitcoin treasury' companies are rising (like MicroStrategy and Trump’s own company), public companies are hoarding BTC like crazy, pushing up demand.
3. $DOGE : Musk's 'meme weapon'
Trump criticizes Musk → DOGE surges 7.2%: Every time Musk attacks the bill, DOGE rises in tandem (e.g., in March he called the bill 'ridiculous', DOGE's daily trading volume surged 40%).
- Magical derivatives:
→ Fans created a meme coin on the Solana chain $KBBB (Kill the Big Beautiful Act), with a market value skyrocketing to **$53 million** in 9 hours.
→ Logic: DOGE is Musk's 'voice substitute', the more he attacks traditional politics, the more the crypto community sees cryptocurrency as a 'symbol of resistance'.
Subsequent impact: Three key clues are being closely monitored!
1. Can the American Party become a force?
- Short-term difficult: The U.S. electoral system is 'winner-takes-all', making it extremely difficult for a third party to secure electoral votes (referencing Perot's 19% vote share in 1992 but zero electoral votes).
- But Musk holds the X platform (180 million users) + trillion-dollar capital, which may sway Republican votes in swing states, forcing both parties to compromise on technology policy.
2. Key points in the crypto policy game
- Stablecoin regulation: If the bill forces a lock on Treasury reserves, centralized exchanges (like Coinbase) will benefit, while the DeFi ecosystem will be under pressure.
- Crypto tax reform: The proposed small tax exemption amendment by the senator was rejected, increasing the tax burden on retail investors which may suppress trading.
Process: Bill fighting → Musk overturns the table → Crypto community suffers but hidden opportunities arise:
- Short-term players: Beware of volatility triggered by political rhetoric (especially leverage, don't be reckless);
- Long-term hoarders: U.S. debt snowballing, BTC's 'anti-inflation' logic becomes more solid, but currently BTC is at a high position, patiently waiting for that perfect opportunity to come, don’t hesitate to buy directly after the cycle dips.
