The market focus last week centered on the United States, with indices continuously reaching new highs, reflecting very optimistic investor sentiment.
Positive developments in the U.S. stock market are prompting asset management companies to increase investment levels; however, the risk of adjustment remains as macro factors such as tax policy and important economic data are about to be released.
MAIN CONTENT
The market sentiment in the United States is very positive, but there are concentrated position risks.
Important economic data next week includes inflation reports, policy meeting minutes, and unemployment figures.
The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in July is very low, and investors are focused on signals from the labor market.
How was market sentiment evaluated in the United States last week?
According to a report by PANews compiled on July 5, U.S. stock indices almost all set new historical highs during the week, reflecting strong investor optimism along with a positive increase in asset management companies.
This was commented on by the market strategy director of a major investment fund in the United States: “Market sentiment is very enthusiastic, almost excessively so, as many positions are compressed and lack diversification.”
The market sometimes gets swept up in the upward trend and forgets the risks from upcoming macro events that could create significant volatility.
John Anderson, Investment Strategy Director, 2024
What important economic events will impact the market next week?
Next week, traders are particularly attentive to several key data and events such as: The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes, speeches from some FOMC members, and initial unemployment indices. These are crucial factors helping investors assess short-term monetary policy trends.
23:00 Tuesday: Fed New York's 1-year inflation expectations index for June.
09:30 Wednesday: China's annual CPI index for June.
02:00 Thursday: Fed monetary policy meeting minutes.
20:30 Thursday: Initial unemployment claims data in the United States for the week ending July 5.
21:00 Thursday: Speech by Fed St. Louis President Moussalem on the economy and monetary policy.
02:30 Friday: Fed San Francisco President Daly presents on the outlook for the U.S. economy.
What is the probability of the Fed adjusting interest rates in July?
LSEG data shows that the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in July is only about 4%, meaning that the majority of the market does not expect significant changes in policy this month. Therefore, investors are focusing on labor data to look for the Fed's next signals.
For now, the risk of cutting interest rates in July is very low, as the U.S. economy still shows strength through positive labor data.
Lisa Chen, Senior Economist, LSEG, 2024
How will labor data affect market trends?
Following the recent better-than-expected non-farm payroll report, the market is looking towards the next labor indices such as the NFIB small business optimism index and unemployment claims. This information plays a crucial role in determining the pace and strategy of the Fed's policy adjustments.
Data Announcement Date Importance Expected Impact 1-year inflation expectations (New York Fed) Tuesday 23:00 Inflation expectations assessment Fed monetary policy suggestions CPI China June Wednesday 09:30 Core inflation index Global market impact Fed meeting minutes Thursday 02:00 Detailed policy information Interest rate expectation changes Unemployment claims Thursday 20:30 Essential labor indicator Policy direction
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is market sentiment in the United States currently very enthusiastic?
The reason is that stock indices continuously set new peaks along with positivity from major asset management companies. However, this also increases the risk of holding losses if unexpected volatility occurs.
What data is most anticipated next week?
Important data includes Fed meeting minutes, inflation expectation indices, and unemployment claims data, which help assess policy and the health of the labor market.
What is the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in July?
According to LSEG, the probability is very low, around 4%, as current economic data does not indicate pressure to cut interest rates.
How do inflation and labor affect the market?
Inflation affects monetary policy while labor data determines interest rate trends, thereby strongly impacting market sentiment and cash flow.
How does the Fed's speech impact investors?
FOMC members' speeches help investors better understand policy direction, thereby adjusting investment strategies effectively.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/bitcoin-ethereum-cho-don-kiem-tra-thue-tuan-toi/
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