Next Week's Market Focus: Trump's Tariff Letters Arrive and the Short-Term Impact of the Debt Ceiling Bill
1. Impending Tariff Storm: The Trump administration's delayed tariff plan will reach a critical stage next week. It is expected that starting next Monday (July X), the United States will begin sending letters to various countries, notifying them of the implementation of new tariff measures (with tax rates covering two levels of 60%-70% and 10%-20%), and plans to officially collect payment from August 1. The market expects that next week's market will fluctuate significantly due to the specific content of these letters.
2. Debt Ceiling Bill: However, the key factor that may truly determine the future movement of Bitcoin in the next month is a major bill that the United States has just signed into law. The core of this bill is to significantly increase the borrowing authorization limit of the US government from $4 trillion to $5 trillion.
3. Long-Term Perspective (Positive): Raising the debt ceiling clears the way for possible huge fiscal expenditures (such as infrastructure, stimulus plans, etc.) by the government in the future, which is beneficial to the financial market and risk assets in the long run.
4. Short-Term Reality (Negative/Drainage): However, after the bill takes effect, the US Treasury Department will immediately begin issuing a large number of new Treasury bonds (approximately $1 trillion), recovering huge amounts of US dollar cash from the open market and depositing them into the Treasury. The key contradiction is that at this time, the Federal Reserve has not only not launched quantitative easing (QE) to purchase these new bonds, but is still conducting "quantitative tightening" (QT), that is, continuously withdrawing liquidity from the market. Under the dual effect, the dollar liquidity in the market will tighten significantly in the short term.
Based on the above analysis, especially the short-term liquidity tightening effect brought about by the increase in the debt ceiling, the Bitcoin market may face continuous pressure. Therefore, the timing of the strong breakthrough rise that Bitcoin is expecting (the "big surge") will most likely need to be postponed until the end of August or even September. The core logic behind this is that the market generally expects that the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle is likely to substantially start after September, and only then can the expectation of improved liquidity truly translate into upward momentum.
