Policy has not yet been moved, but news has come first! Trump's "trade trick" has taken the lead, and the crypto market is ready to listen!
Trump has just signed 12 letters on trade and said that they will be officially sent out on Monday. The specific content has not been announced yet, but we know that he has always regarded trade as a trump card, especially tariffs.
1. Short-term game focus: This news itself is like a "forecast bomb". The market does not know who it will explode at and how fierce it will explode, but Trump's trade card is back online, which will definitely disturb the nerves of the global market. Remember the iron law of the currency circle: uncertainty = volatility! Think about his tariff tweet in 2020, which caused BTC to plunge by 10%+ in an instant. When the traditional market panics, it is difficult for the crypto market to remain immune.
2. Risk aversion or risk? Look at the linkage effect: If it triggers a sharp drop in global stock markets, especially US stocks, the crypto market will most likely be sold as a "high-risk asset" in the short term. BUT! If the impact is concentrated in a specific country/industry, capital may seek "non-traditional" exports, and some of it will flow into the crypto field, especially decentralized stablecoins, cross-border payment concepts, and gold alternative narrative assets may benefit intermittently.
3. Trump effect trading: Trump has been frantically "calling" cryptocurrencies recently, packaging himself as a "friend of cryptocurrencies". Any action he makes to "disrupt the old order" may be interpreted by the market as "good for crypto narratives". Look at $TRUMP, he can be violently pulled up when he issues an NFT. This kind of policy-level "making trouble", related theme coins are more likely to be carried away by emotions.
4. Pay attention to the foreshadowing of the "digital asset trade war": Looking deeper, if Trump really launches a large-scale trade action this time, digital assets and cryptocurrency regulation will definitely become one of the bargaining chips in future negotiations. He may use "US-led cryptocurrency rules" as a pressure tool, which may force US regulation to accelerate the implementation of a clear framework
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