The "One Big Beautiful Bill" signed by President Trump, with the ID #大而美法案 , raises the U.S. debt ceiling by $5 trillion and is expected to expand the deficit by $3.3 trillion over the next decade. Although this fiscal expansion does not directly mention cryptocurrencies, it profoundly impacts the underlying logic of the crypto market through inflation expectations, weakening dollar credit, and policy games.

Bitcoin: Inflation Hedge and Strengthening of the 'Digital Gold' Narrative

Short-term Positive: The increase in debt heightens market concerns about the depreciation of the dollar, driving funds toward Bitcoin and other assets viewed as 'inflation-resistant.' Local governments, such as New Hampshire, have included Bitcoin in their strategic reserves as a hedging tool against federal fiscal risks, further solidifying its status as 'digital gold.'

Long-term Uncertainty: If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to curb inflation, it may enhance the dollar's attractiveness and suppress Bitcoin prices. Historical data shows that Bitcoin's performance varies after adjustments to the debt ceiling, indicating that it is influenced by multiple macro factors.

Stablecoins: Coexistence of Regulatory Vacuum and Systemic Risks

Growing Demand and Credit Risks: Dollar-pegged stablecoins, seen as the 'dollar of the crypto world,' may expand due to increased demand for cross-border payments. However, the bill does not address stablecoin regulatory issues, leading to offshore stablecoins dominating the market, with their reserve opacity posing a de-pegging risk. The U.S. Treasury is attempting to integrate stablecoins into the 'digital dollar export system' to reinforce dollar hegemony, but this may also undermine the decentralized nature of the crypto market.

The "One Big Beautiful Bill" indirectly promotes the 'inflation-resistant narrative' of cryptocurrencies through debt monetization, but market differentiation will intensify:

Bitcoin benefits the most clearly and can be strategically allocated as 'digital gold';

Stablecoins need to be wary of the double whammy of regulation and de-pegging;