'True safety is not relying on predicting the future, but designing a structure that can survive regardless of how the future unfolds.' — (Safe Haven: Investing for Financial Storms) Mark Spitznagel
If you take too much risk, it will likely cost you wealth over time. And at the same time, if you don’t take enough risk, it will also likely cost you wealth over time.
Mark Spitznagel is one of Wall Street's most famous hedge fund managers and a partner of Nassim Taleb (author of 'The Black Swan' and 'Antifragile'). His firm, Universa Investments, is one of the very few funds focused on 'tail risk hedging', amassing significant profits in both 2008 and 2020. (Known in the industry as the King of Black Swans)
The core of this book is: how to build an investment portfolio that can still protect principal during extreme events (Safe Haven Portfolio).
Introduction: We are approaching the next great fracture
History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
On this day in 2025, we find ourselves at a paradoxical moment: US stocks keep hitting new highs, yet long-term bond yields are above 4.5%; the dollar is strong, but consumption is weak; AI has led to a capital frenzy, while the world faces fragmentation and war risks; pumpfun has just been banned by x, while tron boards the presidential ship to NASDAQ...
Israel and Iran have just completed a round of drone warfare; India and Pakistan are increasing troop presence at the border; Russia's Black Sea fleet has been bombed back, and the Ukrainian air force is authorized by the West to strike deep into Russia; meanwhile, in the US, Trump's 'madness' may return, with tariffs and quantitative easing possibly making a comeback.
1. The ultimate truth of wealth in chaotic times: it’s not about making the most, but about being able to afford losses
(Safe Haven) The author Mark Spitznagel has a unique positioning in the finance circle. He is neither a slow-growing compounder like Buffett nor a speculator like Soros.
He does only one thing: design investment portfolios that can survive 'black swan events'.
This may sound plain, yet it is an extremely rare wisdom—especially today when everyone is talking about 'growth', 'innovation', and 'AI'. He presents a brutal yet true fact in the book:
His famous saying: 'What truly determines your wealth's fate is not the average rate of return, but whether you can avoid a moment of 'zeroing out'.'
He mathematically and historically proves that even if a portfolio earns 15% every year, if it encounters a black swan of -80%, it will never recover. There are no hedging assets, only investment structures that can withstand losses.
It's not about holding a 'gold' or 'bitcoin', but about constructing a portfolio structure that can survive the storm.
Compounding does not break in growth, but breaks in disaster.
2. Five life-saving investment rules from (Safe Haven)
In this book, Spitznagel not only critiques the blind spots of traditional asset allocation but also presents five very hardcore hedging strategies applicable to 'extreme times':
1. Safe assets ≠ low volatility assets
Many people misunderstand 'stability' as 'safety'.
In 2008, both gold and bonds saw significant drops; the only thing that rose was long-term deep out-of-the-money put options (SPX PUT).
True hedging assets are those that can explosively grow in value during systemic crashes. A true 'safe haven' asset is one that increases when everything is going poorly.
2. When black swans appear, the magic of 'compounding' can backfire on you
A one-time -50% means you need +100% to break even. But black swans are often not -50%, but rather instantaneously drop to zero.
His conclusion is simple: you cannot bet on survival; you must design a structure to ensure survival.
'The compounding effect is the most destructive force in the universe.' (A different perspective from Buffett)
3. Don't predict the future; instead, prepare for the 'worst' structurally.
'You can’t predict. You can only prepare.'
'Prediction' is an illusion for most investors; preparation is the real way to control risk.
You cannot predict wars, financial crises, or regime changes—but you can allocate assets to ensure you 'won't die' in any outcome.
4. A convex return structure is the true hedge against risk
A convex return structure means:
Normal times with slight losses or break-even
During extreme events, it can double or even multiply by dozens of times
For example: VIX longs, SPX deep out-of-the-money puts, gold long-dated calls, USD/non-sovereign asset hedged positions
5. 'Geographical diversification + custody diversification' is the dividing line between life and death
Where to place assets, who manages them, and whether you can control them is far more important than you think—your geographical location determines whether your assets are yours when a crisis hits.
Do not only have custody in one country, do not only use banks for custody, and do not go all in on systemic assets (such as local currency, domestic stocks, local real estate). Insurance does not exist in chaotic times.
Additionally, the self-custody and convenience of crypto is also a good option.
3. What is a 'hedged investment portfolio' structure?
The structure advocated by Spitznagel is:
90–95%: Low-risk, stable compounding assets (such as short-term US bonds, cash, basic dividend stocks)
5–10%: High-leverage 'tail risk hedging' positions (such as VIX longs, SPX long-dated puts, gold/bitcoin backups)
Examples in the book:
80% invested in the S&P 500 and 20% in gold
50% in the S&P 500 and 50% in Trend-following CTAs
66% in the S&P 500 and 34% in long-Term Treasuries
85% in the S&P 500 and 15% in Swiss Franc
This structure yields mediocre returns in normal times but explodes during black swans (e.g., in March 2020 during the pandemic stock market crash, the Universa fund rose by 4,000%).
Based on his articles and reports, his evaluations of different asset classes:
The net portfolio effect—or the cost-effectiveness of a safe haven—is thus driven by how little of that safe haven is needed for a given level of risk mitigation.
4. Preparing a 'black swan survival portfolio' for 2025: What should you do?
Considering the current risk environment, a possible 'layered asset structure'
Layer 0: A healthy body
No infectious diseases, chronic illnesses, keep body fat not too low, develop an exercise habit, and cultivate a flexible body; able to drive different vehicles and cook.
Layer 1: Assets resistant to systemic risks (self-custodied assets)
Used to save lives when the system collapses entirely
Type Proportion Suggested Characteristics Physical Gold (preferably coins) 5–10% Not dependent on regime recognition, can be used for 'escape' BTC (stored in cold wallets) 5–10% Digital gold, portable globally but with regulatory risks Overseas land/passports 5–10% Necessary for reconstruction and identity transfer.
Layer 2: Tail Risk Hedging Positions (high-leverage hedging assets)
Used to surge during black swans, replenishing the portfolio
Type Proportion Suggested Characteristics SPX Deep Out-of-the-Money Puts 1–2% Long-term options, maximum alpha source VIX Longs 1–3% High explosive potential when market volatility surges Gold Call Options 1–2% Rise in scenarios of hyperinflation or war
Layer 3: Liquid + Growth Assets (normal income sources)
Used for stable living and cash flow when the economy does not collapse
Type Proportion Suggested Characteristics Short-term US bond ETF/National debt money market fund 20–30% Safe and stable, ensures liquidity Diversified global high-dividend stocks 20–30% Source of income, reduces single-country risk Emerging market real estate + USD-denominated REITs 5–10% Diversified cash flow
'In investing, good defense leads to good offense.'
5. Conclusion: Everything could collapse, but you don’t have to collapse with it
(Safe Haven) What it truly wants to tell us is:
You cannot prevent wars, crashes, or revolutions—but you can design an asset structure in advance that won’t zero out under any scenario.
This article is authorized for reprint from: (PANews)
Original title: (How to Manage Your Apocalypse Portfolio After Trump's Madness and Ahead of the Third World War)
Original author: danny
Translation: Felix, PANews
'Black swans are closer than you think! How to manage apocalypse portfolios? Experts reveal 5 life-saving investment rules' was first published in 'Crypto City'
