When everyone thought PEPE would be completely sunk in the bloodbath of June, this green frog staged a textbook-level counterattack in July. In the early hours of July 4, PEPE's price suddenly soared to $0.00001031, with a 24-hour increase of 8%, trading volume surged to $1.03 billion, and market capitalization climbed back to $4.11 billion. This sudden spike not only caused shorts to liquidate over $7 million but also made the entire market realize: PEPE's frog dynasty is far from over!

1. Three major nuclear-level positives ignite the counterattack fuse

  1. The Holy Grail of DeFi has arrived
    The AAVE community has overwhelmingly approved the proposal to include PEPE in the Aave V3 isolated market collateral asset system with a support rate of 76.76%. This marks the first time a meme coin has received a 'ID card' from a mainstream DeFi protocol. After the announcement, on-chain data showed that over $13.35 million worth of PEPE was transferred from the Binance wallet to a smart contract address, with whales betting real money on this 'DeFi revolution'. Analysts estimate that if PEPE's collateral rate in AAVE reaches 5%, it will directly lock 20 trillion tokens, reducing circulating supply by 4.7% and completely restructuring scarcity logic.

  2. The Musk effect reappears
    On July 2, Elon Musk posted a picture on the X platform of the PEPE frog shaking hands with the Dogecoin Shiba Inu, instantly igniting the community. This image, interpreted as a 'Meme coin joint declaration', directly pushed the number of new PEPE addresses in a single day to exceed 120,000, with social media discussions surging by 270%. More critically, the Tesla wallet address increased its holding of 50 billion PEPE again after 8 months, an action seen by the market as a prelude to 'SpaceX rockets soon carrying PEPE to Mars'.

  3. A tremendous technical reversal
    The 4-hour K-line chart shows a rare 'bullish engulfing' pattern, with the price strongly breaking through the psychological level of $0.000010. The MACD histogram continues to expand, and the bullish force reaches its peak since 2025. Even more excitingly, a cup and handle pattern has formed at the weekly level, and if it breaks through the neckline of $0.000014, the target will point directly to $0.0000227, which is equivalent to doubling the current price. Derivatives market data is also crazy, with call options concentrated at the $0.000010 strike price, forming a solid 'bull fortress'.

2. The 'double-edged sword' coexists with deadly risks and opportunities

  1. The whale's scythe hangs overhead
    On-chain monitoring shows that addresses holding over 1 trillion PEPE have cumulatively reduced their holdings by 1.2 trillion in the past week, with some funds flowing to emerging projects like the AI-driven MIND coin. More dangerously, an anonymous wallet transferred 531.6 billion PEPE back to Binance on July 3, resulting in a loss of $483,000 at current prices; this 'panic selling' could trigger a chain reaction.

  2. The regulatory sword of Damocles
    Although the SEC eased regulations on meme coins in February, the fraud allegations against PEPE have never stopped. On June 26, an NFT project associated with the PEPE founder was attacked by North Korean hackers, resulting in losses exceeding $1 million, bringing PEPE back into the regulatory spotlight. Once the SEC initiates an investigation, exchanges like Binance may be forced to delist PEPE, repeating the tragedy of an 80% drop in a single week in 2023.

  3. The liquidity trap hides deadly dangers
    Currently, PEPE's 24-hour trading volume has reached $1.03 billion, but 65% is concentrated on decentralized exchanges, with the top ten addresses holding 38% of the circulating supply, indicating a severe lack of market depth. This 'whale control' pattern means that any single transaction exceeding $100 million could trigger significant price volatility.

3. The 'life-and-death race' in the second half of 2025

In this dramatically charged game, PEPE is standing at a historic crossroads:


  • Short-term (1-3 months): If it can stabilize above $0.00001045 as a bull-bear dividing line, leveraging AAVE integration and the Musk effect, it is entirely possible to challenge $0.000020 within three months. But beware of the 'ultimate defense line' at $0.0000083; if it fails to hold, it will trigger a 'death spiral' in programmed trading.

  • Mid-term (6-12 months): The key depends on the execution strength of the burn mechanism. The team has promised to burn 100 trillion PEPE within the year, and if this goal is achieved, the supply will drop to 410 trillion, enhancing scarcity and potentially pushing prices into the $0.000015-$0.000025 range. However, compared to Dogecoin's market cap of $130 billion, PEPE still needs the community to continuously inject new narratives to break through $5 billion.

  • Long-term (after 2026): If AI-driven competitors like MIND continue to siphon off funds, PEPE may become a 'dinosaur of the meme coin era'. However, if it can build a complete ecosystem like Shiba Inu, aiming for $0.000084 by 2030 is not a pipe dream.

Is this the last chance to get on board, or a deadly trap?

In the world of cryptocurrency, fear and greed are always two sides of the same coin. PEPE's explosive rise has allowed early holders to achieve financial freedom, while latecomers have lost everything. At this moment, I want to say to all investors: If you believe in the power of memes and are willing to bear a 90% pullback risk, then PEPE at $0.000010 could be the craziest bet of 2025; but if you pursue stability, this 'frog casino' with volatility exceeding 23% may leave you with nothing.


Comment time! Do you think PEPE will break through $0.000012 in July, or will it fall below $0.000009? Leave your opinion in the comments section, follow me for the hardest investment logic and emotional insights in the crypto market!
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