With only 48 hours remaining until the Trump administration announces the latest tariff plan on July 9, the global financial market is experiencing an emotional game of "ice and fire". According to the latest statement from the EU trade representative office, the 27 countries have reached a consensus to implement "mirror countermeasures" against the U.S., while Japan's Ministry of Finance has also clearly stated that "it will not change the long-term policy framework for short-term trade pressures." When the market realizes that the Trump administration might indeed impose a 30% tariff on EU cars, the U.S. inflation expectation index at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange soared to a new high since 2008 last night.
The "butterfly effect" of the tariffs is beginning to show. Based on historical data, last year's 10% tariff on consumer goods has already led to a 1.2 percentage point increase in the U.S. core PCE price index. If the tariffs on high-value-added goods such as cars and electronics are increased to 50%, economists generally expect the Q3 U.S. CPI year-on-year to exceed 6.5%. More severe is the pressure on corporate profits—23% of companies in the S&P 500 directly rely on revenue from the European market. Tariff barriers will lead to an average compression of gross margins by 3-5 percentage points, which means that the upcoming earnings season may see a large-scale profit downgrade.
Why does Bitcoin's "107200 death line" affect the entire network?
Back to the crypto market, the weekend’s sideways movement of BTC at 108000 USD is no coincidence. On-chain data shows that the Grayscale Trust's holdings have decreased for seven consecutive days, while CME Bitcoin futures positions have increased by 12,000 contracts, reflecting that institutions are rebalancing their long and short positions. Technically, 107200 USD is a triple bottom support formed since June, while 109200 USD is a dual resistance formed by the 50-day moving average and the previous concentrated trading area. For quantitative traders, this narrow range of 2000 USD is accumulating over 15 billion USD in open contracts, and a directional explosive volatility is highly likely after the tariffs take effect on Tuesday.
Radical faction: Place stop-loss long positions in the range of 107000-107500, targeting the round number of 112000 USD, with a stop-loss set below 106500 USD.
Conservative faction: Keep position control within 30%, while allocating 5% of XBT PUT options as tail risk hedging.
Wait-and-see faction: Wait for the tariffs to take effect and observe changes in the overnight reverse repo scale of the Federal Reserve. If the daily increase exceeds 20 billion USD, it can confirm that the liquidity crisis has been resolved.
Whether the final outcome is "a temporary compromise after extreme pressure" or "a full escalation of the trade war", what is certain is that: the U.S. inflation curve has entered a steep upward channel, and the probability of the Federal Reserve restarting QE in September has risen to 72%. For cryptocurrency investors, this is not a short-term game of bulls and bears, but a critical battle to test asset allocation logic—when the cracks in the traditional financial system continue to widen, the value anchoring function of digital gold may welcome a historic validation moment.
Now, please open your trading terminal and set the numbers 107200 and 109200 as screen bookmarks. In the next 48 hours, we will witness together: will Trump's tariff club create a gold pit, or will market panic create a new value anchor? Follow me for real-time on-chain data analysis and strategies for sudden market movements.