In the past month, the weekly trends of BTC and ETH have basically not changed much and are in a sideways consolidation state.
Why do we pay attention to weekly charts? Because the larger the cycle, the higher the reference value of the trend. If large capital (main players) wants to manipulate a large-scale trend, it requires costs. Shorter cycles, such as hourly or 4-hour charts, are often easily disturbed by players with relatively small capital—such as speculators, large holders, or even exchanges. Therefore, even Bitcoin, as a large-cap coin, can be affected on shorter cycles, let alone the more volatile altcoins.
Moreover, most people in the market are doing short-term trading, and there are not many who are genuinely engaged in medium to long-term contracts. Therefore, the main players will not put much effort into 'setting up' large cycles, as the cost is high and the returns are low.
A particularly unique aspect of this market cycle is that many institutions from traditional finance have also joined in. Unlike previous retail investors who harvested the leeks, it feels like a root-and-branch 'harvest' without leaving a single survivor. But the problem is, if everyone is harvested clean, who will pick up the pieces when the market drops next? Logically, it doesn't make sense.
Looking at the volume of this wave of increases, compared to the peak of the bull market in 2021, it is even weaker than when it rose to 70,000 last year. In simple terms, although the price has risen, the trading volume is not large, indicating that the chips in the market are quite concentrated, and everyone is reluctant to sell—if no one is selling, it naturally increases easily.
From this perspective, the current trend actually doesn't look like a top. A true top is usually accompanied by a massive trading volume because the main players need to offload their assets, requiring someone in the market to buy. Right now, the sentiment in the circle is not hot enough, and no one feels it is the 'peak of the bull market', so no one is willing to take over. In this atmosphere, the main players can't offload their assets, let alone 'distribute'.
So I still say— as long as the overall bull market trend hasn't ended, there is no need to worry too much. Ethereum can be observed when Bitcoin truly peaks, and altcoins can be focused on after Ethereum breaks new highs. To put it simply, take it step by step, and there is no need to predict too much.
I am not the type who fantasizes about a tenfold increase when prices rise and shouts for zero when they fall. If one really had the ability, they would have bought at the bear market lows and sold at the bull market highs, making a fortune instead of being anxious here. The reality is that most people only sing the blues when prices go down and remain silent when they rise, acting as if they see everything clearly, yet they end up earning nothing.
Especially during the recent period when Ethereum just rebounded from a low point, many people began to play dead again. When it fell below 2000, there was all kinds of pessimism, and now that it has risen back, they act as if nothing happened. If you truly believe it will drop to three digits, why haven’t you sold everything?
Recently, various messages are flying around the circle, most of which are panic-driven hype and have little real impact on prices, at most causing hourly fluctuations. What is truly worth paying attention to are the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut arrangements this year, regulations related to stablecoins, and policies regarding Ethereum spot ETFs and staking, as these are the key factors that will influence major market movements.