Hello everyone, Feng Ge is here to analyze today's market again. I carefully observed the 1-hour trend of $ETH and combined it with my judgment to share my views.
The price quickly fell after a short-term surge, dropping from 2603 directly to 2527. This continuous bearish candlestick forms a clear downtrend, and I see the bearish strength is gaining momentum.
On the daily chart, after a surge to 2635 a few days ago, a long upper shadow was formed, followed by a bearish candlestick. There is significant resistance above 2600, which suggests to me that it is challenging for the bulls to launch a counterattack.
Although there was support near the low of 2381 in June on the monthly chart, July is experiencing high-level fluctuations. I believe that after the rebound, the momentum is insufficient, and the overall situation is somewhat precarious.
In terms of technical indicators, the MACD has confirmed a bearish crossover at the 1-hour level, and the daily histogram shows a contraction indicating weakened momentum; the RSI has dropped quickly from the overbought zone of 70 to 40. Although the daily RSI is at 54, which is neutral, I feel pessimistic as the short-term EMA has been broken, but the daily still maintains a bullish arrangement, which tells me that the long-term foundation is okay, but there is significant short-term pressure.
In terms of trading volume, the increase in volume during the decline and the decrease in volume during the rebound are too obvious, and the weakness of the bulls worries me.
The daily chart shows a volume decrease after a surge, while the monthly chart has significant support in June, but the volume in July is insufficient, indicating that the overall market sentiment is cautious.
In terms of trading strategy, I personally suggest: Buy point one near 2510, with strong support and good opportunities; Buy point two at 2480, with backup provided by the previous low area.
Set a stop loss for long positions below 2450 to prevent a deep drop. For selling, point one is at 2570 with significant resistance, and point two is at 2600 as an extreme retracement; set a stop loss for short positions at 2630, as the risk is high for breaking new highs.
Overall, I lean towards being conservative, as there may be a short-term correction, but building positions at low levels is the right approach.
The market is dull; those brothers who are suffering losses should collect the recovery password from me!
