The market on July 9 is destined to be turbulent

On July 9, the 'deadline' for US and EU tariffs will fall on the same day, and Trump has postponed the 50% tariffs on EU goods to July 9 in order to gain negotiation time.

- If implemented, the European export sector and the short-term fluctuations in US-EU exchange rates will intensify.

- If delayed, the market will interpret it as a political bargaining chip rather than an inevitable policy, and risk assets are expected to rebound.

The FOMC minutes for June will also be released on July 9, and this round of minutes will present for the first time the divergence among committee members regarding the impact of Trump's tariffs:

Doves emphasize employment and corporate financing costs, while hawks are concerned about secondary inflation.

The market will use it to predict the probability of a rate cut in September.

If the minutes show that a significant number of committee members lean towards a preemptive rate cut, the 2-year US Treasury yield could instantly drop to around 4.00%, benefiting non-US and venture assets (especially cryptocurrencies).

China's CPI/PPI for June will also be released on July 9.

This data is a crucial window to observe input inflation vs. weak domestic demand:

Either 1. CPI remains around 0% and PPI continues to be negative ➜ weak domestic demand recovery, pressure on the yuan to depreciate, and global commodity chain inflation momentum may weaken.

Or 2. CPI returns above +0.5% ➜ resonating with the recent rebound in industrial metals and energy prices, heating up the global re-inflation narrative.