Dogecoin's price is approaching $0.174, and after hitting a mid-June low of $0.16 on Tuesday, buyers have successfully defended this support level twice, driving the price up about 11%. As the largest meme coin by market capitalization, Dogecoin's performance has rekindled market enthusiasm. However, technical signals are mixed, and short-term trends still require cautious observation.
The current rebound resembles more of a three-wave correction rather than a five-wave trend reversal. The rise since the June 22 low can be broken down into an ABC structure, with wave A nearing its end, followed by a potential wave B pullback, and then wave C may push the price up to $0.196 (the 138% Fibonacci extension of the first wave). The key support level is between $0.16 and $0.166, maintaining stability in this area will preserve the validity of the diagonal wave pattern.
If it breaks below $0.16, the price may test the June low of $0.151, and on-chain data indicates that buying pressure and derivative support in that area are weak.
The daily chart shows a breakout of the 50-day downtrend line, a key resistance that had long suppressed price rebounds. After the breakout, the price has formed a bullish structure of 'higher lows' and 'higher highs', indicating that buyers are gradually taking control.
If this pattern continues, Dogecoin may enter a sustained upward phase. If the price breaks above $0.20, it will not only break the downtrend that has been in place since the December 8, 2024 high of $0.4843, but it may also confirm a more lasting trend reversal.
The current trend is highly similar to the descending wedge pattern seen just before the historic bull market of 2020. At that time, Dogecoin triggered a parabolic rise after breaking the wedge, setting a new all-time high. If the current pattern successfully breaks out, the price could challenge $1.5, or even $3.50.
Dogecoin is currently at a critical turning point, breaking the 50-day trend line and forming a bullish pattern, suggesting short-term upside potential, with target levels at $0.196 to $0.20. If it breaks further above $0.20, it may initiate a larger upward trend, with long-term targets possibly pointing to $1.5 or even higher.
