Recently, the job market in the United States has been quite lively. Since the record of 12.18 million job vacancies in March 2022, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes have slowed down the pace at which companies are hiring. However, the latest data shows that this trend may be reversing — job vacancy data for April and May has rebounded. Although the monthly data may fluctuate by hundreds of thousands, experts pay more attention to long-term trends. Over the past year, job vacancies have remained stable between 7 million and 8 million, indicating that the market is relatively stable.
By industry, the sudden increase in jobs in May mainly came from the food, beverage, and entertainment sectors, accounting for three-quarters of the new additions. There were also slight increases in fields like banking, logistics warehouses, and hospitals, suggesting that many industries are hiring. A key indicator (the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed individuals) has returned to the pre-pandemic level of 1.1, marking the first time in several months that this has occurred.
The newly released data for June is even more striking: 147,000 new jobs were added, significantly higher than the expected 106,000. Adding in the revisions from the previous April and May data, this amounts to a total of 16,000 more job opportunities over these three months. The unemployment rate has also dropped to 4.1%, exceeding expectations for four consecutive months, indicating that there are indeed many people looking for work.
This data has given the Federal Reserve a headache. Originally planning to control inflation by continuing interest rate hikes, the hot job market may require a more cautious approach. However, there are also concerns: a closer look at the data reveals that half of the new jobs are supported by government agencies, and private sector hiring has not increased much. Additionally, many people quit after a few months, indicating that job stability is still an issue.
Currently, the U.S. job market is like the weather forecast predicting "localized showers" — overall it looks sunny, but some industries and regions may suddenly change. This is similar to a whack-a-mole game for the global market, where problems in any segment could trigger a chain reaction.
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