Recently, ETH's market performance has been quite eye-catching, with prices breaking the high point since June, reaching the range of $2560-2620. This wave of increase is not only due to an improved short-term market structure, but also indicates that real funds are flowing in.
From a technical perspective, several moving averages are lined up neatly upwards, especially on the 4-hour chart, where the 20, 50, 100, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) are all clustered in the range of $2472-2506, clearly signaling that a short-term bull market has arrived. The Bollinger Bands have also widened, further indicating the strength of the current upward momentum.
However, we need to stay vigilant, as we may encounter resistance ahead. $2620 is the first hurdle; if we can break through, we will then look at the more critical price levels of $2685 and $2745. The short-term support is around $2573, while the range of $2510-2472 is more important, serving as the dividing line for the battle between bulls and bears, so it’s worth keeping an eye on.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently positioned slightly above the middle, leaning towards the bullish direction; the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has recently formed a golden cross, indicating that the upward momentum is still pushing higher. Although the overall technical perspective shows a rapid increase, we are approaching significant resistance levels, so there may be short-term fluctuations or minor pullbacks.
Looking at the fundamentals and on-chain data, approximately 106,000 ETH has flowed into ETFs over the past 7 weeks, indicating that market confidence in Ethereum remains intact. However, the price is rising more slowly, suggesting a sense of “stagnation.” On-chain data also shows that around 81,000 ETH has been transferred to centralized exchanges recently, with an additional 13,000 added within two days, which may exert some pressure on short-term prices.
Overall, Ethereum is currently at a critical intersection of technical and fundamental factors. Although the overall direction is positive, we need to closely monitor various indicators and the movements of large holders, adjusting strategies as necessary. The future market movement will depend on whether we can effectively break through those resistance levels above, as well as whether institutional funds can continue to flow in.
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