1. Interpretation of Macro News
1. Expectations for Trump's Fiscal Policy and Reactions in the Crypto Market
At 5 AM Beijing time on July 5, the 'Big and Beautiful Act' that Trump plans to sign has garnered much attention. The core focus of this act is on large-scale fiscal tax cuts and spending plans, combined with expectations of the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy, which is expected to further release market liquidity. From a risk appetite perspective, this may inject positive momentum into the crypto asset market in the short term. However, the crypto tax incentives that the market is concerned about, such as capital gains tax reductions and miner income tax reductions, have not been included in the bill, which undoubtedly impacts market expectations for long-term cryptocurrency holders.
2. Tether Stablecoin Issuance Dynamics Tracking
On-chain data shows that Tether has completed the issuance of 1 billion USDT on the Ethereum network, marked as 'inventory ready for issuance,' and has not yet flowed into trading platforms. This action is only part of the preliminary reserve phase and has not yet translated into market purchasing power. Subsequent monitoring of market trading volume changes is necessary to capture substantive entry signals.
3. The Impact of US Employment Data on Monetary Policy
The US employment data for June exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1% and non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000, demonstrating the resilience of the US job market. This performance may lead to a delay in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut process, further affecting the capital flow and risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market.
2. Mainstream Cryptocurrency Technical Analysis
1. BTC Technical Analysis
Yesterday's analysis clearly pointed out that the key resistance level for BTC is in the 1105 area. During the US trading session, the BTC price briefly surged to 1105 before quickly retreating, which aligns with the expected trend. The daily chart shows that BTC has unsuccessfully attempted to breach the 1105 resistance level three times, forming a small bullish candlestick with a long upper shadow, indicating a significant weakening of upward momentum. From a classic technical perspective, the current daily trend presents a 'triple top' pattern, and the volume changes conform to the characteristics of this pattern—larger volume on the first peak, followed by gradually shrinking volume on the subsequent two peaks. Although bullish forces still exist, close attention should be paid to daily level pullbacks and the occurrence of consecutive bearish candlesticks to confirm trend reversal signals. On the 4-hour chart, BTC's price is stuck in high-level consolidation, with K-line frequently showing long upper shadows, indicating significant upward pressure. For intraday trading strategies, it is advised to focus on shorting opportunities in the 1095 - 1105 resistance zone, with support levels focusing on the 1085 - 1075 area.
2. ETH Technical Trend Analysis
As expected yesterday, ETH began to pull back after reaching a high of 2636, dipping to a low of 2565, which aligns with the bearish forecast for the 2620 - 2650 resistance zone. On the daily chart, ETH continues its upward trend but pulled back from the highs, forming a small bullish candlestick with a long upper shadow. The price is approaching the 2650 resistance level that has been a barrier multiple times in June, and the upward momentum is slowing. Despite being in an upward trend technically, macroeconomic uncertainties have led to a lack of market confidence. On the 4-hour chart, ETH is in a phase of high-level consolidation after its rise, lacking strong fundamental support, raising doubts about the sustainability of the uptrend. For intraday operations, attention can be paid to shorting opportunities in the 2600 - 2630 resistance zone, with the primary support level below at 2550. If this point is breached, the next support level looks towards 2450.
3. Current Status of Altcoin Market and Trading Strategies
The current altcoin market shows a significant differentiation pattern, with overall weak performance. Even as BTC prices approach new highs, most altcoins have failed to rally in unison and have even experienced declines. Popular sectors cannot drive the overall market trend, reflecting a lack of market confidence and insufficient capital participation. Market trading behavior is primarily short-term speculation, with funds mainly engaged in tentative operations or quick in-and-out trades, leading to poor trend sustainability. Therefore, it is recommended that investors maintain light positions and adopt a quick in-and-out strategy to avoid chasing highs. Until market volume effectively increases and mainstream coins stabilize in a sideways manner, the altcoin market is unlikely to see a sustained upward trend. The above content is based on market dynamics analysis and technical judgment, as the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, investment decisions should be made cautiously. The views presented in this article are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.
