1. Fundamental Interpretation
Trade Agreement Triggers Market Volatility: Trump reached a comprehensive trade opening agreement with Vietnam, significantly boosting market sentiment, leading a large influx of funds into the Bitcoin market and pushing BTC prices to a historical high of $1097.
Regulatory Uncertainty Continues: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced a deep review of Grayscale's ETF conversion application and suspended the approval process, casting a shadow over the regulatory outlook for the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin Price Trend Analysis: Although the SEC's regulatory actions pose potential risks, the trade agreement signed by Trump has become the dominant short-term factor in the market, with continuous capital inflows maintaining an upward trend in Bitcoin prices.
2. BTC Technical Analysis
From yesterday's market situation, Bitcoin briefly broke through the resistance level of $1078 before experiencing a pullback. However, stimulated by ADP employment data and the Trump trade agreement news, the price quickly rebounded. Although it shows an overall upward trend, the key resistance level of $1091 has not been effectively broken.
Short-term Trading Strategy: It is recommended to look for short-selling opportunities around $1091 while closely monitoring the upcoming non-farm payroll data's impact on the market.
Daily Level Analysis: Yesterday, BTC formed a solid bullish candlestick, completely recovering the losses from the previous two days. It not only broke through the upper red trend line at the 'three high position' but also broke the descending channel after making new highs, indicating an initial short-term bullish trend. However, trading volume data shows that the volume during the two-month upward phase has been weak and is on a shrinking trend, while the volume during the downturn has significantly increased, especially with several large bearish candlesticks in mid-June accompanied by substantial volume. This suggests that the market has not yet entered a sustained upward trend and is more likely in a consolidation phase to form a top. Considering the uncertainties such as tariff policies, geopolitical conflicts, and expectations of monetary policy interest rate cuts, it is not advisable to be overly optimistic in the short term.
4-Hour Chart Analysis: The market continued its stabilization and rebound after the decline into the U.S. trading hours, and after a volume increase, the market entered a period of consolidation. Future focus should be on the resistance in the $110 - $111 range, and trading strategies can be formulated by observing multiple signals of highs and retracements. For intraday operations, focus on the resistance area of $1095 - $1105 above, and the support level is in the $1075 - $1085 range.
3. ETH Technical Analysis
ETH also formed a bullish candlestick yesterday, not only recovering previous losses but also strongly breaking through the selling pressure in the $2480 - $2580 range, showcasing strong upward momentum. During the recent rebound, although the volume has increased moderately, there has been no significant shrinkage, indicating that bullish momentum still exists. If the volume can continue to increase and break through the $2700 level, it may trigger a new upward trend. However, if the price falls below $2500 for two consecutive days with increasing volume, the short-term bearish risk will significantly increase, and subsequent support may seek to form a bottom around $2210. The 4-hour chart shows that after a volume rise in the early morning, the market entered a phase of adjustment, and the current price is close to the high point that triggered buying in mid-June. For intraday operations, focus on the resistance level of $2650 - $2620 above and the support level of $2550 below. If this support is broken, the price may further decline.
4. Altcoin Market Analysis
Against the backdrop of significant increases in mainstream coins BTC and ETH, altcoins have performed relatively flat. In the current macroeconomic and market environment full of uncertainties, institutional investors and large holders are more inclined to allocate funds to crypto assets like BTC and ETH that possess both safe-haven attributes and market consensus. The spot ETFs related to BTC and ETH continue to attract capital inflows, directly driving the price up, while altcoins lack such capital inflows, making it difficult to benefit in the short term. The current market is still in a repetitive phase of 'wait and see - chasing highs - replenishing,' and has not formed a comprehensive speculative frenzy for altcoins. Subsequent operational advice is to avoid blindly chasing altcoin price increases and to focus on high-quality projects that are oversold and have market consensus, such as AI concepts, RWA (Real World Assets), and modular public chains, like LDO, ARB, and S. It is necessary to wait for a clear buying signal before taking further action.
Special Reminder: The cryptocurrency market experiences significant price fluctuations, and investment decisions should be made cautiously. The above content is only personal analytical views and does not constitute investment advice, for reference and communication only.
