Large holders are unloading, retail investors are watching, the exchanges are filled with BTC, but buy orders are as thin as paper — this is not the quiet before a breakthrough, it is a tug-of-war of capital handover.

The fundamental problem: There are many sellers and few buyers!

'Long-term holders' are running: Those who have held coins for several years (LTH) see prices nearing all-time highs and start selling off significantly. In the past month alone, they dumped $60 billion worth! This is equivalent to one-fifth of what they had available being sold off. Think about the feeling at the top of the bull market in 2021; doesn't it feel familiar?

Miners are also 'submitting their homework': Miners are producing new coins daily (450, worth $50 million), plus the coins sold by long-term holders (23,000 in a week), all being stuffed into exchanges. The result is that the new incoming money simply cannot absorb so many sell orders! The Bitcoin reserves on exchanges are rapidly increasing (almost half more than last year), but the buyers willing to take large quantities have decreased by a third, a typical case of 'too much supply, too few buyers.'

ETFs also 'can't pull through': Don't be fooled by the fact that several Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. (like those from BlackRock and Fidelity) had a net inflow of $2.75 billion last month, which sounds impressive. But looking closely, it’s shocking: their actual daily purchases have plummeted from 12,500 coins in March to just 1,300 now! This minor increase is negligible against the sell pressure from miners and long-term holders.

Contract Market: Everyone is very 'confused,' hesitant to place large bets

Futures 'Zen': The big players in futures contracts are now very cautious. The key indicator measuring their enthusiasm, the 'basis' (the difference between futures and spot prices), is currently only 8% annualized, far below last year's peak of over 20% when it hit $100,000. This indicates that people are reluctant to use high leverage to bet on big rises. Even stranger is that the total contract position (open interest) hasn't changed much, but trading volume has halved (-58%)! What does this indicate? Everyone is waiting and doesn't know which way to bet!

Options 'not buying insurance' anymore: The trading volume in options has also decreased significantly (-59%). More critically, the number of people buying 'downside insurance' (put options) has dropped substantially (from 41% to 17%). Even large institutions feel that a sharp drop in the short term is unlikely, so they are reluctant to buy insurance. However, there is a dangerous signal: When the options trading volume shrinks to this extent, historically, there is a 78% chance of severe price fluctuations (up or down over 50%) in the following month! The calm before the storm?

Public sentiment is scattered: big holders are buying, retail investors are afraid

Institutions are still 'buying': Companies like MicroStrategy, known as 'Bitcoin loyalists,' recently spent over $400 million, with an average price of $106,000, buying more than 4,000 coins, bringing their total holdings to nearly 325,000!

Retail investors are starting to 'retreat': But ordinary investors' 'FOMO' (Fear of Missing Out) sentiment has clearly cooled. The market sentiment index has dropped from 'extreme greed' to 'greed.' Searches for 'Bitcoin bubble' on Google have surged by 320%. More tellingly, Asian funds are withdrawing: exchanging stablecoins (like USDT) for RMB has even shown a 1% discount (it should be 1:1), indicating some people would rather incur a loss in fees to flee.

Unfavorable Timing: Off-season + Policy 'Black Swan'

July is 'Dull Month': Historical data shows that the entire month's crypto trading volume only accounts for 6.1% of the annual total! It is the quietest month. With small trading volume, prices are hard to make big moves; even major events like Trump's tariff policies (with nodes on July 5 and 9) easily result in 'big thunder but little rain.'

Trump's 'Tariff Stick' is Scary: In February, he announced a 25% tariff on EU cars, and Bitcoin crashed 12% that day. Now he has postponed the decision to July 9, and this back-and-forth policy makes people anxious, so they are reluctant to put money into risky assets like Bitcoin.

Federal Reserve's 'Interest Rate Cut' Uncertainties: Now the market thinks the probability of a rate cut in June is 68%. However, if the core inflation data (PCE) released at the end of the month exceeds 2.9% (previously 2.8%), the rate cut might be off the table. The expectation of a rate cut is an important pillar supporting Bitcoin's 'anti-inflation' narrative; if the pillar is unstable, the structure will shake.

Technical indicators 'show yellow light': Feeling a bit tired

Weekly 'Fatigue': Looking at the weekly chart, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) shows signs of being 'overbought' (having risen too much), and the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) red bars are shortening, indicating that upward momentum is weakening.

Daily 'Top Divergence': The daily chart shows this more clearly, with prices wavering between 106,000 and 112,000, but the RSI indicator's highs keep getting lower (top divergence). This has lasted for 5 days and is a dangerous signal. The 106,000 area is a cost zone for many 'whales', which has been tested repeatedly; if it breaks, it could trigger a chain sell-off.

Beware of 'Golden Cross Trap': Recently, the 50-day moving average just crossed above the 200-day moving average (commonly known as 'Golden Cross'). Historically, this often turns out to be a 'pitfall'! After the Golden Cross in February 2021 and March 2024, Bitcoin immediately plummeted by 10%-11%, shaking off a bunch of people before starting a real upward trend. Will this happen again?

Sencet's View:

  • 'This is not a top, it's a handover!' My personal feeling is that it feels more like institutions are taking chips from the long-term holders (LTH). The long-term holders have held on for years and finally broke even/gained a lot, cashing out is normal. MicroStrategy and ETFs are taking the opportunity to accumulate below relatively high points. This process is bound to be volatile and tiring, just like the months of consolidation after the halving in 2016; getting through it is where the vast horizon lies.

  • 'The off-season is a period for positioning!' July's trading is indeed thin, but for those with a dollar-cost averaging strategy, it is a good window to accumulate chips. Think of those who quietly bought in the off-season and then laughed all the way to the bank when the market exploded at the end of the year or the following year.

  • 'Technical signals are warnings, not judgments!' Top divergence and golden cross traps are reminders that short-term risks are accumulating. We need to control our positions and leverage; they do not mean the market will crash immediately. The key is still to look at on-chain core data (whale movements, exchange reserves) and ETF fund flows.


The mountain at 112,000 has been climbed three times with no success. Is the main force 'washing the盘' to gather strength, or is the selling pressure at the 'peak' really like an avalanche? Keep an eye on three signals: next Monday's US PCE inflation data (which will determine the fate of the Fed's June rate cut), whether ETF fund flows can return to the $2 billion/week level, and whether the 1.72 million coins in exchange 'inventory' will break through the 1.8 million warning line! Remember, the deep squats in a bull market are often to jump higher — provided you ensure you don't get shaken off while squatting down. What do you think? Follow Sencet and share your 'strategies' in the comments!
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