1. The macro-inflection point has arrived: the warming of supervision and the resonance of policy protection
At the beginning of the third quarter of 2025, the macro situation has quietly changed. The policy environment that once pushed digital assets to the edge is now turning into an institutional driving force. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve ending its two-year interest rate hike cycle, fiscal policy returning to the stimulus track, and global crypto regulation accelerating the construction of an "accommodative framework", the crypto market is on the eve of a structural reassessment.
First, from the perspective of monetary policy, the macro liquidity environment in the United States is entering a critical turning window. Although the Federal Reserve still emphasizes "data dependence" at the official level, the market has long reached a consensus on interest rate cuts in 2025, and the gap between the lag of the dot plot and the advanced expectations of the futures market is widening. The Trump administration's continued pressure on the Fed has politicized monetary policy tools, indicating that the US real interest rate will gradually slide from a high level between the second half of 2025 and 2026. This expectation gap has opened up an upward channel for the valuation of risky assets, especially digital assets. More importantly, with Powell's marginalization in the political game and the emergence of a "more obedient Fed chairman", easing is not only an expectation, but is more likely to become a policy reality.
At the same time, the fiscal side is also developing simultaneously. Fiscal expansion represented by the (Big American Act) is bringing about an unprecedented capital release effect. The Trump administration has invested heavily in areas such as manufacturing repatriation, AI infrastructure, and energy independence, which has actually formed a "capital torrent channel" spanning traditional industries and emerging technology fields. This not only reshapes the structure of the US dollar's internal circulation, but also indirectly strengthens the marginal demand for digital asset assets-especially in the context of capital seeking high risk premiums. At the same time, the U.S. Treasury Department has also become more radical in its treasury bond issuance strategy, sending a signal of "not fearing debt expansion", making "printing money for growth" once again a consensus on Wall Street.
The fundamental shift in policy signals is more reflected in the change of regulatory structure. Entering 2025, the SEC's attitude towards the crypto market has undergone a qualitative change. The official approval of the ETH pledge ETF marks the first time that US regulators have recognized that digital assets with a yield structure can enter the traditional financial system; and the advancement of the Solana ETF has even given Solana, once regarded as a "high-Beta speculative chain", a historical opportunity to be institutionalized. More importantly, the SEC has begun to formulate unified standards to simplify the approval of token ETFs, intending to build a replicable and mass-producible channel for compliant financial products. This is an essential shift in regulatory logic from "firewall" to "pipeline engineering", and crypto assets have been included in financial infrastructure planning for the first time.
This change in regulatory thinking is not unique to the United States. The race for compliance in Asia is heating up, especially in financial hubs such as Hong Kong, Singapore, and the United Arab Emirates, which are scrambling to gain compliance dividends from stablecoins, payment licenses, and Web3 innovation projects. Circle has applied for a license in the United States, Tether has also deployed Hong Kong dollar anchor coins in Hong Kong, and Chinese giants such as JD.com and Ant have also applied for stablecoin-related qualifications, indicating that the trend of integration between sovereign capital and Internet giants has started. This means that in the future, stablecoins will no longer be just trading tools, but will become part of payment networks, corporate settlements, and even national financial strategies, and this is driven by the systematic demand for on-chain liquidity, security, and infrastructure assets.
In addition, risk appetite in traditional financial markets has also shown signs of recovery. The S&P 500 hit a new record high in June, technology stocks and emerging assets rebounded simultaneously, the IPO market rebounded, and user activity on platforms such as Robinhood increased, all of which sent a signal: venture capital is returning, and this round of return is no longer just focused on AI and biotechnology, but has begun to re-evaluate blockchain, crypto finance, and on-chain structured income assets. This change in capital behavior is more honest than narrative and more forward-looking than policy.
When monetary policy enters the easing channel, fiscal policy is fully released, the regulatory structure shifts to "regulation means support", and risk appetite is restored, the overall environment of crypto assets has long escaped the dilemma at the end of 2022. Driven by this dual-wheel drive of policy and market, it is not difficult for us to draw a conclusion: the brewing of a new round of bull market is not driven by emotions, but a value revaluation process driven by institutions. It is not that Bitcoin is about to take off, but that the global capital market has begun to "pay a premium for certain assets" again. The spring of the crypto market is returning in a gentler but more powerful way.
2. Structural turnover: Enterprises and institutions are leading the next bull market
The most noteworthy structural change in the current crypto market is no longer the sharp price fluctuations, but the underlying logic that chips are quietly shifting from retail investors and short-term funds to long-term holders, corporate vaults and financial institutions. After two years of clearing and reconstruction, the structure of participants in the crypto market is undergoing a historic "reshuffle": users with speculation as the core are gradually marginalized, while institutions and companies with the purpose of allocation are becoming the decisive force driving the next round of bull market.
Bitcoin's performance speaks for itself. Although the price trend is calm, its circulating chips are accelerating the "lock-up". According to data tracking by QCP Capital and other institutions, the cumulative amount of Bitcoin purchased by listed companies in the past three quarters has exceeded the net purchase scale of ETFs in the same period. MicroStrategy, NVIDIA supply chain companies, and even some traditional energy and software companies are viewing Bitcoin as a "strategic cash substitute" rather than a short-term asset allocation tool. Behind this behavior pattern is a deep understanding of the expectation of global currency depreciation, and it is also a proactive response to the incentive structure of products such as ETFs. Compared with ETFs, companies directly purchasing spot Bitcoin have more flexibility and voting rights, and are not easily affected by market sentiment, and have stronger holding resilience.
At the same time, financial infrastructure is clearing obstacles for the accelerated inflow of institutional funds. The approval of the Ethereum staking ETF not only expands the boundaries of compliant products, but also means that institutions are beginning to incorporate "on-chain income assets" into traditional investment portfolios. The expected approval of the Solana spot ETF further opens up the imagination space. Once the staking income mechanism is packaged and absorbed by the ETF, it will fundamentally change the traditional asset managers' perception of "no income, pure volatility" of crypto assets, and will also prompt institutions to transform from risk hedging to income allocation. In addition, large crypto funds under Grayscale have applied to convert to ETF form, indicating that the "barrier" between traditional fund management mechanisms and blockchain asset management mechanisms is being broken.
More importantly, enterprises are directly participating in the on-chain financial market, breaking the isolation structure between traditional "over-the-counter investment" and the on-chain world. Bitmine directly increased its holdings of ETH in the form of a $20 million private placement, and DeFi Development spent $100 million on the acquisition of Solana ecological projects and the repurchase of platform equity, which means that enterprises are participating in the construction of a new generation of crypto financial ecology with practical actions. This is no longer the logic of venture capital participating in start-up projects in the past, but a capital injection with the color of "industrial mergers and acquisitions" and "strategic layout", with the intention of locking in the core asset rights and income distribution rights of the new financial infrastructure. The market effect brought about by this behavior is long-tailed, which not only stabilizes market sentiment, but also enhances the valuation anchoring ability of the underlying protocol.
Traditional finance is also actively deploying in the field of derivatives and on-chain liquidity. The open interest of Solana futures on CME reached 1.75 million, a record high, and the monthly trading volume of XRP futures also exceeded US$500 million for the first time, indicating that traditional trading institutions have included crypto assets in their strategy models. The driving force behind this is the continuous entry of hedge funds, structured product providers, and multi-strategy CTA funds - these players do not pursue short-term huge profits, but are based on volatility arbitrage, capital structure games, and quantitative factor model operations, which will bring fundamental enhancements to the market in terms of "liquidity density" and "market depth".
From the perspective of structural turnover, the significant decline in the activity of retail investors and short-term players has just reinforced the above trend. On-chain data shows that the proportion of short-term holders continues to decline, the activity of early whale wallets has decreased, and the on-chain search and wallet interaction data have stabilized, indicating that the market is in a "turnover sedimentation period." Although the price performance at this stage is relatively flat, historical experience shows that it is this quiet period that often breeds the biggest market starting point. In other words, the chips are no longer in the hands of retail investors, and institutions are quietly "laying the foundation."
What is even more important is that the "productization capabilities" of financial institutions are also being rapidly implemented. From JPMorgan Chase, Fidelity, BlackRock, to emerging retail financial platforms such as Robinhood, PayPal, and Revolut, all are expanding the trading, staking, lending, and payment capabilities of crypto assets. This not only enables crypto assets to truly achieve "usability in the legal currency system", but also provides them with richer financial attributes. In the future, BTC and ETH may no longer be just "volatile digital assets", but will become "configurable asset classes" - a complete financial ecosystem with derivatives markets, payment scenarios, income structures, and credit ratings.
In essence, this round of structural turnover is not a simple rotation of positions, but a deep development of the "financial commodity" of crypto assets and a thorough reshaping of the logic of value discovery. The players who dominate the market are no longer the "quick money tribe" driven by emotions and hot spots, but institutions and enterprises with medium- and long-term strategic planning, clear allocation logic, and stable capital structure. A truly institutionalized and structured bull market is quietly brewing. It will not be fanciful or exciting, but it will be more solid, more lasting, and more thorough.
3. The new era of Shanzhai Season: From general rise to "selective bull market"
When people mention the "altcoin season", what comes to mind is often the full-blown, frenzied general rise in 2021. But in 2025, the evolution of the market has quietly changed, and the logic of "altcoin rise = full takeoff" is no longer valid. The current "altcoin season" is entering a new stage: the general rise is no longer, and it is replaced by a "selective bull market" driven by narratives such as ETFs, real returns, and institutional adoption. This is a manifestation of the gradual maturity of the crypto market, and it is also the inevitable result of the capital screening mechanism after the market returns to rationality.
From the perspective of structural signals, the chips of mainstream altcoins have completed a new round of precipitation. The ETH/BTC pair has experienced a strong rebound for the first time after weeks of decline. Whale addresses have attracted millions of ETH in a very short period of time, and large transactions on the chain have frequently appeared, indicating that the main funds have begun to re-price primary assets such as Ethereum. At the same time, retail investor sentiment is still at a low level, and the search index and wallet creation volume have not yet rebounded significantly, but this has created an ideal "low-interference" environment for the next round of market conditions: there is no overheating of emotions, no retail investor explosion, and the market is more easily dominated by institutional rhythms. From historical experience, it is precisely at this moment when the market "seems to be rising but not rising, and seems to be stable but not stable" that the greatest trend opportunities are often born.
But unlike previous years, this time the copycat market will not "fly together", but "fly separately". ETF applications have become the anchor point for a new round of theme structures. In particular, Solana's spot ETF has been regarded as the next "market consensus event". From the launch of the Ethereum staking ETF to whether the staking income on the Solana chain will be included in the ETF dividend structure, investors have begun to deploy around the pledged assets, and the price performance of governance tokens such as JTO and MNDE has also begun to move out of independent market conditions. It can be foreseen that in this new narrative cycle, the performance of assets will revolve around "whether there is ETF potential, whether it has the ability to distribute real income, and whether it can attract institutional allocations". It is no longer a wave of market conditions that drives all tokens up, but a differentiated evolution in which the strong will always be strong and the weak will be eliminated.
DeFi is also an important field in this round of "selective bull market", but its logic has also changed fundamentally. Users began to shift from "points airdrop type DeFi" to "cash flow type DeFi", and protocol income, stablecoin income strategy, re-pledge mechanism, etc. have become the core indicators for considering asset value. Liquidity providers no longer blindly chase high APY bait, but pay more attention to strategy transparency, income sustainability and potential risk structure. This shift has spawned the outbreak of projects such as Renzo, Size Credit, and Yield Nest. They do not rely on marketing or hype, but attract continuous capital inflows through innovative designs such as structured income products and fixed-rate vaults.
The choice of capital is also quietly becoming more "realistic". On the one hand, stablecoin strategies backed by real-world assets (RWA) have begun to be favored by institutions, and protocols such as Euler Prime are trying to create "quasi-treasury bond products" on the chain. On the other hand, cross-chain liquidity integration and user experience integration have also become key factors in determining the direction of funds. Middle-layer projects such as Enso, Wormhole, and T1 Protocol are becoming emerging hubs for capital concentration by relying on imperceptible bridging and embedded DeFi capabilities. It can be said that in such a "selective bull market", it is no longer the L1 public chain itself that dominates the trend, but the infrastructure and composable protocols built around them that have become the new valuation core.
At the same time, the speculative part of the market is also shifting. Although Meme coins are still popular, the era of "everyone pulling the price" is gone forever. Instead, the "platform rotation trading" strategy has emerged. For example, the Meme contracts launched on Binance are mostly based on the core operation of quickly turning the funding rate negative and pulling up shipments. The risk is extremely high and unsustainable. This means that even if speculative hotspots are still there, the interest of mainstream funds has obviously deviated. Capital is more inclined to allocate projects that can provide sustained returns, have real users and strong narrative support, and would rather give up explosive returns in exchange for a more certain growth path.
In short, the core feature of this round of copycat season is not "which public chain will fly", but "which assets have the possibility of being incorporated into traditional financial logic". From the structural changes of ETFs, the re-pledge income model, the simplification of cross-chain UX, to the integration of RWA and institutional credit infrastructure, the crypto market is ushering in a deep value revaluation cycle. The selective bull market is not a weakening of the bull market, but an upgrade of the bull market. The future will no longer belong to the greater fool game, but to those who read the narrative logic in advance, understand the financial structure, and are willing to quietly build positions in the "quiet market".
4. Q3 Investment Framework: From Core Allocation to Event-Driven
The market layout in the third quarter of 2025 is no longer a simple bet on "market sentiment recovery" or "Bitcoin's dominance", but a full-dimensional asset structure reshaping. Under the macro trend of the end of high interest rates and the continuous influx of ETF funds, investors must find a balance between "core configuration stability" and "event-driven local outbreaks". From the long-term configuration of Bitcoin, to the theme trading of Solana ETF, to the rotation strategy of DeFi real income agreement and RWA vault, a hierarchical and adaptable asset allocation framework has become a necessary prerequisite for traversing the fluctuations in the third quarter.
First of all, Bitcoin is still the first choice for core positions. In an environment where ETF inflows have not seen a substantial reversal, corporate treasuries continue to increase holdings, and the Fed's policy sends dovish signals, BTC has shown strong resistance to declines and a siphoning effect of funds. Standard Chartered Bank's latest report pushes its year-end price ceiling to $200,000. Although it is a high expectation, the logic behind it is very convincing: corporate buying is becoming the biggest variable in the market, and the "structural accumulation" feature of ETFs has changed the traditional price trajectory of the halving cycle. Even if Bitcoin has not yet reached a new high, its chip structure and capital attributes also determine that it is still the most stable bottom-stock asset in the current cycle.
In the rotation logic of mainstream assets, Solana is undoubtedly the most explosive target in Q3. VanEck, 21Shares, Bitwise and other leading institutions have submitted applications for SOL spot ETFs, and the approval window is expected to end around September. As the pledge mechanism is expected to be included in the ETF structure, its "quasi-dividend asset" attribute is attracting a large amount of funds to pre-bury layout. This narrative will not only drive the SOL spot itself, but also affect the governance tokens of its pledged ecology, such as JTO and MNDE. Judging from the current price level of around US$150, SOL already has extremely strong cost-effectiveness and Beta elasticity. For funds that missed the BTC market at the beginning of the year, the Solana sector will undoubtedly become a strategic option for "making up for the rise" or even "leading the rise".
At the sector level, the DeFi portfolio is still worth reconstructing. Different from the past stage of "competing for APY", the current focus should be on protocols with stable cash flow, real income distribution capabilities, and mature governance mechanisms. For configurable projects, you can refer to SYRUP, LQTY, EUL, FLUID, etc., and adopt an equal-weighted configuration method to capture the relative returns of individual projects and re-rotate profits. It is worth emphasizing that such protocols often have the characteristics of "slow capital return and delayed outbreak", so they should be treated with a mid-term configuration mindset to avoid chasing ups and downs. Especially under the premise that Bitcoin's dominance remains high and mainstream sentiment has not fully turned to cottage, DeFi assets are more suitable as structural reinforcements rather than tactical speculation.
In terms of speculative position allocation, Meme assets should strictly control the exposure ratio. It is recommended to limit it to less than 5% of the total net asset value and manage positions with option thinking. Given that Meme contracts are currently mostly manipulated by high-frequency funds, the risk is extremely high but there is no lack of high-return space with a small probability. It is appropriate to set up a clear stop-loss mechanism, stop-profit rules and position limit. In particular, the contract targets launched on mainstream exchanges such as Binance (such as $BANANAS31, $TUT, $SIREN), whose short-term pull-ups are often accompanied by high negative funding rates and sharp drawdowns, should be set up with a "fast in and fast out" strategy framework. For investors who are accustomed to event-driven trading, such assets can be used as emotional covering tools, but they must not be misjudged as the core of the trend.
In addition to the configuration ideas, another key in the third quarter is the timing of event-driven layout. The current market is facing a transition period from "information vacuum" to "intensive event release". Trump once again confirmed his support for cryptocurrency mining and criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which has triggered expectations of accelerated policy games. The passage of (a big US bill), Robinhood L2's entry into Arbitrum Orbit, and Circle's application for a US license and other signals show that the US regulatory environment is changing rapidly. With the review node of Solana ETF approaching, the market is expected to usher in a round of "policy + capital resonance" market from mid-August to early September. The layout of such events should not be intervened after the "good news is realized", but should be predicted in advance and gradually built up to avoid the trap of chasing highs.
In addition, it is necessary to focus on the momentum of structural alternative themes. For example, Robinhood's construction of L2 and promotion of tokenized stock trading may ignite a new narrative of the integration of "exchange chain" and RWA; and projects such as $H (Humanity Protocol) and $SAHARA (AI+DePIN fusion), with the dual support of verifiable roadmaps and active communities, may become the "explosion point" in the marginal sector. For investors who are capable of in-depth analysis of roadmaps, early opportunities in such projects can also be used as part of a high-volatility strategy, but it is important to control positions and comply with risk control.
In general, the investment strategy for Q3 2025 must abandon the "flooding" betting mentality and turn to a hybrid strategy of "core as anchor and events as wings". Bitcoin is the anchor, SOL is the flag, DeFi is the structure, Meme is the supplement, and events are the accelerator - each part must correspond to a different position ratio and trading rhythm. In the new environment where the ETF fund chassis is constantly expanding, the market is also quietly reshaping the new valuation system of "mainstream assets + theme narrative + real returns". The success of investors no longer depends on luck, but on whether they can understand the capital logic behind this round of changes.
5. Conclusion: The next round of wealth migration is already on the way
Each round of bull-bear cycle is essentially a cyclical reshuffle of value revaluation, and the real wealth migration often does not occur at the most lively moment of the market, but is quietly completed in the chaos. At the key turning point of the current round of market, although the market has not yet returned to the stage of "national frenzy", a selective bull market led by institutions, driven by compliance, and supported by real returns is brewing. In other words, the story has already written the preface, waiting for a few people who understand it to enter the market.
The role of Bitcoin has changed fundamentally. It is no longer just a symbol of speculation by young people, but is gradually becoming a new reserve component in the balance sheets of global companies and a national inflation hedging tool. In the past year, from Tesla, MicroStrategy to Bitmine and Square, more and more companies have included it in their core holdings; at the same time, the inflow of US ETFs has changed the previous chip structure of "miners-exchanges-retail investors" and built an underlying capital reservoir. The biggest force that will have the greatest impact on Bitcoin prices in the future is not the hot posts on the X platform, but the purchase records of institutions in the next quarterly financial report, the allocation decisions of pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, and the repricing of the risk asset valuation system by macroeconomic policy expectations.
At the same time, the infrastructure and assets that represent the next generation of financial paradigms are also slowly and firmly evolving from "narrative bubbles" to "system takeovers". Solana, EigenLayer, L2 Rollup, RWA Treasury, re-pledged bonds... They represent a trend: crypto assets are changing from "anarchic capital experiments" to "predictable institutional assets", and these structural opportunities will lead the direction of the next round of capital tides. Don't get me wrong, this is not a continuation of a game of getting rich quickly, but a pricing revolution that crosses asset boundaries. The past belonged to PC Internet and US stocks, and the future belongs to on-chain collaboration and digital property rights.
The Shanzhai season is not back, but it has changed. The "general rise" of Meme resonance and chain game linkage in 2021 will not happen again. The next round of market will be more deeply bound to the three anchor points of real income, user growth and institutional access. Those protocols that can provide institutions with stable income expectations, those assets that can attract stable funds with the help of ETF channels, and those DeFi projects that truly have RWA mapping capabilities and can graft real volumes will become "blue chip stocks" in the new cycle. This is an eliteization of "shanzhai", a selective bull market that eliminates 99% of pseudo assets.
Ordinary investors face both challenges and opportunities. The market still appears to be stagnant - low heat, scattered sectors, weak sentiment, and poor momentum, but this is the golden period for big funds to quietly complete their positions. When the market begins to ask "where is the next outbreak point", what you actually need to ask is: "Am I standing on the right structure?" It is the reconstruction of the position structure, not the accidental critical hit game, that determines whether you can get the profit of the main rising wave.
Whether it is the institutional takeover of Bitcoin, Solana's ETF narrative, the reconstruction of DeFi's cash flow valuation system, the globalization of stablecoins, or the establishment of a new L2 order, the third quarter of 2025 will be the prelude to this wealth migration. You may not have sensed it yet, but it has already happened; you may still be waiting, but opportunities never wait for anyone.
The next bull market will not ring the bell for anyone, it will only reward those who think ahead of the market. Now is the time to carefully plan your position structure, information sources and trading rhythm. Wealth will not be distributed at the climax, but quietly transferred before dawn.
