On July 3, the U.S. non-farm data exceeded expectations, and the U-3 unemployment rate decreased, among other signals, combined with analyst Joseph Richter clearly stating that 'the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates in July and September.' This judgment has quickly manifested in the crypto space, and the core logic can be broken down into three aspects:
1. Liquidity expectations have reversed, putting pressure on risk assets.
The expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates has been an important support for the previous rebound in the crypto space — the market had anticipated the influx of funds from loose policies into cryptocurrencies. However, with strong non-farm data and a declining unemployment rate, it has reinforced the expectation that 'the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for a longer period,' restarting the logic of tightening U.S. dollar liquidity.
Funds naturally tend to shift from high-volatility cryptocurrencies to U.S. dollar assets (such as U.S. Treasury bonds and dollar cash). Bitcoin has reacted first: after the data was released, it fell below $109,000, and the 24-hour growth rate narrowed to 0.07%, with significant short-term selling pressure caused by the liquidation of leveraged funds.
2. Market sentiment turns cautious, and volatility intensifies.
Cryptocurrency is extremely sensitive to policy signals. Previously, weak 'small non-farm' ADP data had raised expectations for interest rate cuts, with Bitcoin once testing $115,000; now, with the reversal of non-farm data and the delay in the interest rate cut window, the market has switched from 'optimistic speculation' to 'defensive wait-and-see.'
This emotional shift may lead to: mainstream coins (BTC/ETH) testing support levels, while altcoins may experience larger declines due to capital withdrawal; at the same time, the long-short ratio in the leveraged market plummets, and the short-term volatility range may expand to 5%-8%.
3. Long-term logic has not yet broken, but caution is needed in the short term.
It should be noted that this impact is more of a short-term emotional shock. If the Federal Reserve still has the possibility of cutting interest rates in the fourth quarter (as analysts mentioned 'consistent with the fourth-quarter outlook'), the medium to long-term capital allocation logic in the crypto space has not completely reversed. However, at least from July to September, cryptocurrencies may enter a 'volume adjustment period,' particularly with high-leverage positions needing to be cautious due to repeated policy changes that could lead to liquidations.
In summary, the current crypto space is facing the growing pains of 'policy expectation adjustments.' Investors need to lower short-term return expectations and prioritize attention on the critical support level of BTC at $105,000, avoiding liquidity risks in altcoins — waiting for clearer signals from the Federal Reserve's policies before strategically re-entering the market.
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