Tonight's Non-Farm Payrolls "Life and Death Battle"! Federal Reserve to Cut Rates in July, the Ultimate Game Begins!
Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. June Non-Farm Payroll data is set to be released — this could be the "final gamble" for the Federal Reserve's rate cut in July!
Last night, the "small non-farm" ADP data surprised: employment plummeted by 33,000, marking the first negative result in two years, gold surged to 3350 USD, and market rate cut expectations went into a frenzy.
Inside the Federal Reserve, tensions are running high:
Trump's campaign adviser Waller and Bowman insist: "Rates must be cut in July to save the economy!"
Powell remains cautious: "No results from tariff negotiations; changing policies would be suicidal!"
The President is firing back angrily: "Powell is just a blockhead, doesn’t understand politics!"
Two possible outcomes for tonight's Non-Farm Payrolls:
✅ Data Disappoints (Weak Employment): Probability of a July rate cut exceeds 20%, the dollar index collapses again, and gold and non-USD currencies celebrate;
✅ Data Strong (Employment Exceeds Expectations): The Federal Reserve remains "on hold", the market temporarily returns to rationality, and risk assets may correct.
An even bigger storm is brewing:
On July 9, Trump's tariff "buffer period" expires, and countries like Japan and South Korea may face heavy tariffs;
The dollar has already posted its worst weekly decline in 50 years this week, and Goldman Sachs warns: if more surprises hit tonight, the dollar could face a "Sell-off Wave 2.0", allowing the euro and yen to counterattack.
This is the pinnacle showdown of political maneuvering vs economic data, with global markets waiting for the "Non-Farm Judgment" — the biggest turning point in July's financial climate is tonight!
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