Powell responds to 'If it weren't for tariffs, the Fed would have lowered interest rates earlier.' The deadline for tariff negotiations is July 9. Will the Fed lower interest rates in July?
Unless something unexpected happens, it's highly likely that something unexpected will happen.
If it weren't for Trump saying he wanted to replace me, the Fed would have lowered interest rates long ago.
If it weren't for the tariff policy, the Fed would have lowered interest rates long ago.
If it weren't for the Israel-Palestine war, the Fed would have lowered interest rates long ago.
This is just talk; you, Powell, with your shameless face, don't you know the reasons for not lowering interest rates? Is it really just the inflation data you mentioned? The employment data? Come on, it's not that it's getting harder to sell US Treasury bonds.
You say the US Treasury bond defaults are important? Or is that bit of interest on the bonds important? Which is more important, Powell still knows clearly. One could say that the inflation rate is the least worth mentioning among the numerous reasons the Fed considers for lowering or not lowering interest rates.
But why is it one of the reasons the Fed mentions most often? It's actually because the Fed is unwilling to take the blame.
Regardless of whether the Trump administration engages in a trade war, inflation cannot be controlled. From the beginning, the Fed never intended to lower interest rates so easily, after all, this rate hike cycle has not yielded the expected results, and they are feeling frustrated without a reason to maintain high interest rates. Suddenly, Trump's tariff policy provided the Fed with a perfect excuse, thus this delay can extend for nearly another half year.
The Fed, at this point, is all about delaying; if possible, it would be best to delay until 2026 to lower interest rates. If US Treasury bonds cannot maintain high interest rates, what will happen to the massive amount of bond swaps? No one will buy, and capital will flow out of the Treasury bond market, so the Fed dares not significantly lower interest rates, and even dares not lower them at all. The $37 trillion in Treasury bonds hangs over the Fed like a sword, neither lowering nor not lowering.
July 9 is the deadline for tariff exemption negotiations; whether interest rates will be lowered in July can only be made clearer after the 9th.
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The next 10x coin is about to be born; on July 30, the day of the interest rate cut, the 10x coin code will be announced, stay tuned
