Tonight's Non-Farm Payrolls Will Determine Everything! The Federal Reserve's July Rate Cut is Coming for One Last Push!
At 20:30 tonight, the U.S. June Non-Farm Payrolls data will make a significant appearance—this may directly decide whether the Federal Reserve will initiate a rate cut in July!
Last night, the 'little non-farm' ADP data unexpectedly collapsed, with employment plummeting by 33,000, marking the first negative growth in two years, leading gold to spike to $3,350, and market rate cut expectations soared.
The Federal Reserve's divisions have intensified, and the White House is fully engaged:
Trump-affiliated board members Waller and Bowman strongly advocate for a 'rate cut in July';
Powell still insists on waiting, emphasizing that 'it is not advisable to act hastily before tariff negotiations are clear';
The President continues to apply pressure, angrily criticizing Powell as a 'wooden head', escalating the game!
There are two scenarios for tonight's non-farm data:
If the data is weak: the expectation for a July rate cut could surpass 20%, and the dollar index may decline again;
If the data is strong: the Federal Reserve may choose to remain inactive, with the market returning to rationality in the short term.
A bigger storm is on the horizon:
On July 9, the 'buffer period' for Trump's tariffs is about to end, which may lead to strong actions against countries like South Korea and Japan;
The dollar has already seen its worst weekly drop in 50 years this week, and Goldman Sachs warns: if tonight's data surprises to the downside, the dollar could face a new wave of selling, and the euro and yen may take the opportunity to rebound.
This is the ultimate showdown between politics and data.
The global market is closely watching tonight; the non-farm data may become the biggest turning point in the July financial landscape!
How will the subsequent trends evolve? We will interpret the non-farm data as soon as it is released.
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