🌞7.3 Market Analysis｜Deep V Reversal, Belief is More Important than Prediction
Good morning, brothers. Last night’s market gave a “fake fall” to the market, and many thought BTC would break below $100,000, but it quickly rebounded within 24 hours, showing a standard deep V reversal.
This movement indicates two issues:
First, the manipulation tactics of the market makers are still seasoned. Once emotions are swayed, weak hands will easily be scared out of the market.
Second, if you lack the ability to judge the larger trend, you can easily be repeatedly harvested by “fake breaks” and “false breakthroughs.”
Will there be a short-term pullback?
To be frank, no one can accurately predict the market in the coming days; there are too many short-term variables affecting the market, including:
Whether Trump's tariff negotiations will escalate further
Geopolitical conflicts: developments in Russia-Ukraine, North Korea, etc.
Interest rate policy games among various countries
The results of bill voting and its disturbance to market confidence
These factors will continuously release disturbance signals, so it’s better to understand the trend and stick to the strategy rather than predict short-term movements.
Look long-term, and understand the three major trends supporting the market
The decline in inflation has become a fact
Multiple macro data indicate that U.S. inflation pressure is easing, opening up space for interest rate cuts.
Expectations for a change in the Federal Reserve chair have strengthened, and the pace of interest rate cuts may accelerate
Trump frequently names Powell, criticizing him for “delaying interest rate cuts” and continuously releasing pressure signals. Once a change occurs, the new Federal Reserve chair will likely implement a more accommodative monetary policy.
BTC reserves on exchanges hit a phase low
Over 5,000 BTC flowed out of exchanges last week, with fewer circulating tokens in the market, increasing concentration of holdings, indicating that the main force is nearing the end of accumulation, and bottom support is strengthening.
Operational advice:
Do not predict short-term, only execute: Don’t be led by emotions; take profits where needed and hold firmly where necessary.
The bullish logic in the medium to long term remains unchanged: BTC fundamentals are healthy, macro trends are favorable, institutions are continuously increasing positions, and the bull market is still on track.
Key reminder: Don’t hold no positions, and avoid frequent short-term trading attempts to “predict the market,” as this can easily lead to missing the main upward wave.
