I. Fundamental interplay of bulls and bears: Policy benefits coexist with regulatory gloom

  1. Trump's trade agreement catalyzes market sentiment
    The Trump administration has reached a comprehensive trade open agreement with Vietnam, which the market interprets as a signal of improved global liquidity expectations. Data shows that within 24 hours of the announcement, net inflows into Bitcoin-related ETFs reached $320 million, pushing BTC price to a new high of $1097. This move aligns with Trump's previously proposed 'cryptocurrency-friendly economic policy', significantly boosting market risk appetite in the short term.

  2. SEC regulatory uncertainty suppresses optimistic sentiment
    The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced the suspension of the Grayscale Bitcoin Fund's conversion to ETF, requiring more market manipulation prevention measures. This decision continues the SEC's cautious approach to cryptocurrency regulation. According to CoinGlass data, after the announcement, the liquidation amount in the Bitcoin futures market reached $180 million within 2 hours, reflecting the market's sensitive reaction to regulatory risks.

  3. Macroeconomic events drive short-term trends
    Despite the disturbances caused by the SEC news, ADP employment data fell short of expectations (new jobs at 145,000, expected 225,000), reinforcing expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Combined with the positive stimulus from Trump's trade agreement, Bitcoin maintains strength amid multiple factors at play. The market is currently focused on the non-farm employment data to be released on Friday, which is expected to be a key variable to break the short-term consolidation pattern.

II. BTC Technical Analysis: After the breakout, beware of divergence risk in volume

Daily level: Signs of topping are beginning to appear

Yesterday, BTC formed a large solid bullish candle, recovering the losses of the previous two days and breaking through the $1078 resistance level, but the trading volume showed 'upward contraction' characteristics—average daily trading volume during the recent two-month uptrend has shrunk by 35% compared to the downtrend phase, especially with significant volume during the sharp drop in mid-June, indicating doubts about the sustainability of bullish momentum. Although the red trend line has been breached, the overall pattern is more consistent with 'sideways top formation' rather than the start of a main upward wave, and caution is needed regarding potential backlash from tariff policies (July 9) and geopolitical conflicts.

4-hour level: Key pressure zone is clear

After the price surged to $1097 during the US market session, it entered a correction, forming a strong resistance zone at $1095-1105 (previous high + Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level). Short-term strategy suggestion:


  • Short position layout: Light short near $1095, stop-loss at $1105, target $1085-1075;

  • Support attention: $1075 is the dividing line for bulls and bears; if broken, it looks down to the previous low of $1055.

III. ETH Technical Analysis: Strong breakout requires verification of support validity

Daily level: Bullish pattern remains unchanged, but hidden concerns emerge

ETH surged yesterday, recovering the $2480-2580 resistance area, with a large bullish candle on the daily chart, but two points need attention:


  1. Insufficient volume matching: The volume during the rebound phase was only 40% of that during the June drop, indicating cautious buying enthusiasm;

  2. Demand for verification at key levels: $2700 acts as a pivot for the Q2 2024 consolidation, and a sustained volume breakout above this level would confirm a new round of upward movement.

4-hour level: Phase adjustment or brewing direction choice

After a surge in volume in the early morning, the price encountered resistance at $2620-2650 (a dense area of trapped positions from mid-June). Operational suggestion:


  • Short at resistance levels: Layout short positions near $2650, stop-loss at $2680, target $2600-2550;

  • Support level strategy: If $2550 is lost, beware of a pullback below $2500, at which point the short signal will strengthen.

IV. Altcoin strategy: Structural opportunities under the siphoning effect of mainstream coins

Market characteristic analysis

Yesterday, mainstream coins surged while altcoins performed flat, reflecting institutional capital's preference for hedging in an uncertain environment. Data shows that BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw an inflow of $1.2 billion in the past week, while related altcoin products experienced a net outflow of $350 million. This 'strong mainstream, weak altcoins' pattern may continue in the short term.

Key focus direction

  1. Oversold consensus sectors:

    • AI Track: LDO (Leading Layer 2 staking, corrected 60% from higher points)

    • Modular public chain: ARB (Arbitrum ecosystem native coin, consistently in the top three for TVL in Layer 2)

  2. Event-driven targets:

    • S (a certain DeFi protocol token, V2 version will be released in July, expected to release deflationary benefits)


Operational principle: Do not blindly chase prices; wait for opportunities when mainstream coins are adjusted, prioritizing varieties with 'technical bottoming + ecological progress', with a single position not exceeding 5% of total funds.

V. Risk warning and operational discipline

  1. Data risk: Today's 20:30 US non-farm payroll data may trigger violent fluctuations; it is recommended to reduce positions before the data is released.

  2. Position management: Total positions in BTC/ETH should not exceed 30%, and altcoin holdings should be controlled within 10%;

  3. Discipline execution: All short positions must have stop-losses (30-50 points) to avoid losses expanding due to sudden policy news.


(The market has risks, and investment should be cautious. The above analysis is just a personal opinion and does not constitute operational advice.)


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