News Analysis:
The U.S. Congress recently passed the **'Big and Beautiful' Bill**, which includes comprehensive tax cuts and spending measures; however, it is disappointing news for the crypto industry. Although the bill was originally expected to include tax incentives for the crypto industry, these provisions were ultimately not included, meaning that crypto businesses still face high pressure and uncertainty regarding tax compliance.
This move shattered the market's illusion of potentially friendly U.S. policies; the failure of policy expectations triggered short-term market sentiment fluctuations, with crypto companies continuing to face pressure and compliance costs remaining high. While this is not considered a fatal negative, its impact on short-term market sentiment and industry expectations should not be overlooked.
Technical Analysis:
Bitcoin (BTC):
Yesterday's market movement completely matched the expectations in earlier research reports, with short opportunities near $1078 being effectively validated. Bitcoin's price surged multiple times to around $1075 during the Asian session before falling back, and after entering the U.S. session, it began to decline sharply, with an intraday maximum drop of over 3000 points. Overall, the trend aligns with our forecast for a short-term correction.
Current Technical Form: Bitcoin has formed two consecutive small bearish candles, and the three-high structure is basically confirmed, opening up a short-term downward trend. The key support level ahead is around $101,000; if this position is lost, the downside space will further open up, with $95,000 becoming a key support.
Operation Suggestion: Continue to focus on short positions!
Upper Resistance: Pay attention to the short opportunities around the $1065-$1075 region.
Lower Support: Focus on the $1047-$1037 range for support; if this support level is breached, there will be greater downside potential.
Ethereum (ETH):
Yesterday's trend aligned with expectations, with prices rebounding from the resistance level near $2490 before falling back, with a maximum drop of about 120 points. On the daily chart, Ethereum formed two consecutive bearish candles and broke below the moving average support, with an effective short-term support level around $2210.
Operation Suggestion: Continue to focus on short positions!
Upper Resistance: Pay attention to the $2440-$2480 level for short opportunities;
Lower Support: Focus on the $2380 region for support; if the price falls below this support, further downside may occur.
Altcoins:
Currently, altcoins are overall in a weak consolidation structure, with some coins experiencing high-level pullbacks, and the speed of hotspot rotation is too fast, lacking sustainability. The instability of market sentiment has led to occurrences where low liquidity projects are offloading.
In this market environment, investors need to pay attention to volume signals; if the trading volume does not continue to expand, do not chase highs. Especially in ambiguous structural conditions, risk control becomes particularly important; it is better to choose to stay out and observe, avoiding high-risk chasing.
Summary:
Current market volatility is intensifying; in the short term, market sentiment is affected by the absence of crypto tax incentives in the U.S. tax reduction bill, and crypto companies still face pressure from high compliance costs. Bitcoin and Ethereum have formed a short-term downward structure technically, with market sentiment cautious. Investors need to strictly control risks and remain flexible in their operations.
